Brace for Impact: Team TOTUS comes out for extension of homebuyer tax credit

Update: Marty Feldstein agrees with MiM on the GDP and double dip  (too bad he endorsed Obama and later let himself be used as a tool like Volcker)

Third-quarter growth “was boosted by the various fiscal stimulus policies,” Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein said in an e-mail. “The danger remains of a serious slowdown after this and a possible double dip” of the economy in 2010, he said.

*Montage by Delta1111111

In an apparent  reversal of  sentiment from that expressed by HUD chief Shaun Donovan in his testimony to Congress just weeks ago when he said it was very expensive, the WH is endorsing the extension of the homebuyer tax credit (details at end of post).

IMO this policy reversal, combined with TOTUS’ failure to laud the GDP data today (he merely commented that he is not satisfied as Americans need work) can mean only one thing.

The internal economic projections of the WH team led by Romer rolling stimulus expectations waaaay back last week, are WAY WAY WORSE than expected. They see the double dip coming and are trying to get in front of it with more stimulus spending in an extended homebuyer tax credit which will do what clunkers did,  cannibalize future sales and leave a wider gap in the future with additional deficits.

So MiM’s forecast for artificial GDP bumps in 3Q and 4Q  ’09 may need to be extended into 1Q 2Q 2010 if they are going to keep throwing money at anything that will give a temporary boost to GDP. Of course the coming tax hikes they are building into the system with the deficit they are growing will CRUSH our economy for years to come but that seems to be beyond their timeline, and thus not their concern.

Clearly the goal is political with everything they do, I guess that comes from Rahm. But that being said, I would expect they are playing dice hoping to keep GDP artificially high going into 2010 Congressional mid terms.

Of course since it is not organic GDP growth jobs are not coming with it so I don’t see the payoff in this policy unless they think Americans will look at stock markets and GDP and feel happy despite being unemployed and foreclosed upon? DOW right now, 3:14 pm up 200. It is high on sugar and our economy is a diabetic on dialysis over here! Today is the anniversary of the 29 collapse btw…there was a HUGE rally after that followed by the utter collapse of the economy as a CNBC guest notes now…HA he said sugar high! I said that! I will add this video when CNBC posts it

Question is, can they pull off this GDP stimulus spending for that long while simultaneously driving down the dollar without a total collapse of our economy from the CRUSHING deficit? We shouldn’t have to even pose that question. This is like giving the car keys to a raging alcoholic after an open bar at their ex’s wedding.

Doubling down on bad medicine.  I am past girding, I am bracing for impact (sadly no Sully at the wheel, we have Pelosi and Reid)..

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Original Post: In an apparent  reversal of  sentiment from that expressed by HUD chief Shaun Donovan in his testimony to Congress just weeks ago when he said it was very expensive, the WH is endorsing the extension of the homebuyer tax credit:

The nation’s top housing official expressed doubt over the need to extend the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers, and said that the Obama administration was reviewing whether the additional cost of extending the credit was worth any benefit in home sales.

Shaun Donovan, the secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, told a Senate hearing on Tuesday that there was “clear evidence” that the tax credit had benefited the housing market. But he said that the “real issue” in considering an extension was whether an extension was worth the cost to the government in lost tax revenue.

The actual cost of the credit won’t be known “until Americans have filed their tax returns,” he said. “And so, we feel it’s very important within the administration that we gather as much data as we possible can in advance of that before we make a final decision.”

This was just 2 weeks ago folks!

Mr. Donovan said that he understood that the impending expiration of the tax credit meant that the administration needed to make a decision soon so that the market could plan accordingly. Mr. Donovan said he didn’t believe a “catastrophic decline” in home sales would result if the tax credit were allowed to expire on Nov. 30, though he said that an expiration could have some “negative implications” for the market….

And today they send out Geithner to say EXTEND THE TAX CREDIT!

Bloomberg:

The Obama administration endorsed plans to extend an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, saying it is helping stabilize the nation’s housing market.

The tax break, enacted earlier this year as part of an economic stimulus package, has “brought new families into the housing market and contributed to three consecutive months of rising home prices,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said today in a statement. The tax break will expire Nov. 30 unless Congress intervenes.

Senate Democrats have announced plans to extend the credit until April 30 while expanding it to include higher-income Americans and some who already own homes.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus said today the new plan would offer a $6,500 credit for homebuyers who have lived in their prior residence for at least five years. Couples earning up to $225,000 and individuals up to $125,000 would qualify for the break, Baucus said. That’s up from the current $75,000 limit for individuals and $150,000 for couples.

“The success of the American economy is closely tied to the success of the housing market – by helping to stabilize the housing market, the homebuyer tax credit has helped to shore up the economy as it begins to recover,” said Baucus. “This would enable an even greater number of potential homebuyers to take the credit.” Millions of renters earn more than $75,000, he said.

Here’s a question for good ole Max who initially balked at this spending: What will happen to all those rental property owners whose tenants you claim will buy houses? What about the people who work for those property owners? Unintended consequences. All the government can do is steal one man’s profit and give it to someone else. They do not CREATE anything. Only private capital CREATES JOBS. My God I sound like Larry Kudlow. My dad is smiling in heaven.

Democrats have been pushing to include the provisions in an unemployment benefits bill, which has been held up by a disagreement with Republicans over other proposed amendments….( read the whole thing).

October 29, 2009. Tags: Brace for impact, Christina Romer, deficit spending, economic growth, Economy, Enterprise, GDP, homebuyer tax credit, job creation, Marty Feldstein, NCC 1701 D, Paul Volcker, Shaun Donovan, Star Trek The Next Generation, TIMOTHY GEITHNER, Unemployment. Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 4 comments.