Meredith Whitney agrees with MiM and thinks we will have a double dip. She echoed the sentiments of this morning’s post. “I don’t know what’s going on in the market right now because it makes no sense to me,” she said.
Airtime Mon. Nov. 16 2009 1:11 PM ET
CNBC: Stocks are overvalued and the US economy is likely to fall back into a recession next year, well-known analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC…The banking index has advanced some 136 percent but the sector may have been at least fairly valued, says Meredith Whitney, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group CEO. In a wide-ranging interview, Whitney, CEO of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, also said:
“I haven’t been this bearish in a year,” she said in a live interview. “I look at the board and every single stock from Tiffany to Bank of America to Caterpillar is up. But there is no fundamental rooting as to why these names are up—particularly in the consumer space.”
- She was disappointed that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn’t spell out how the Federal Reserve planned to exit “the biggest Fed program to date, which is the mortgage-backed purchase program.” In a speech earlier Thursday, Bernanke said the central bank was watching the dollar’s decline but is likely to keep interest rates low.
- The US consumer was going through the biggest credit contraction ever—even bigger than that during the Great Depression. “That credit contraction is accelerating,” she said. “There’s nowhere to hide at this point.”
- The banking sector is not adequately capitalized and will need to raise more capital in the coming year.
- The residential real estate market is likely to worsen and remains a much bigger threat than the commercial property market. The government’s mortgage modification program won’t result in any major improvement in homeowners’ ability to stay above water, she added.
“I don’t know what’s going on in the market right now because it makes no sense to me,” she said.
“The scariest thing about the Fed’s program is that the money on the sidelines isn’t going to support that asset class,” she added. “So the trillion dollars of Fannie (Mae), Freddie (Mac) and mortgage-backed securities that the Fed is holding—there’s no substitute buyer there.”
Smallville ‘Pandora’ webclip after the break:
Market disconnect from reality continues: DOW up 135 off weak dollar as Gold hits ANOTHER record high of $1134.90…
Update: Meredith Whitney agrees with MiM! Says this is the most bearish she has been in a year. Post coming up.
11/16 11:15 am EST: MiM is not a professional investment adviser, do not take our advice, that said, RUN LIKE CRAZY! If this isn’t a frakkin TOP then what the hexx is? We are sellers of all the equities we do not plan to hold for 10 yrs or more. The instability and uncertainty in the American outlook (under this Administration) is the highest it has been in my lifetime. In everything I factor into making investment decisions: the economic policy, fiscal policy, trade policy, tax policy, foreign affairs policy, national defense policy (MiM’s very own investment economic indicators .VIX (volatility index) if you will, lol., ALL of it, the uncertainty is the highest I have ever seen it, this team could do anything at anytime for any and no reason, there is ZERO CERTAINTY or even a CHANCE of stability IMO as far as the eye can see ,
you cannot apply any rationale or logic to it, surely they wouldn’t ram through 2 trillion in this environment with this deficit? Surely they wouldnt be SO STOOPID as to RAISE TAXES AND INCREASE REGULATION proven job killers in this market? Then they do. Surely after those NJ VA elections they will slow down? No they push immigration (maybe they are trying to get a voting bloc in before 10, I dunno I don’t care for these purposes).
Bottom line, the retail investor like myself has everything to lose and nothing to gain IMO rolling the dice on this Administration (as Big Dawg APTLY and not racistally said?! you know what I mean), they bigfoot around corporations and free market forces, Congress is out of control, they insult our allies and kowtow to our rivals, they leave free trade agreements with Colombia who does everything we ask, and So Korea another ally, UNPASSED and unsiged, they are letting the dollar collapse, they gave away a TRILLION dollars and still lost a million jobs. Why the hexx would I risk everything to have Team Obama come tax me to death in ’10?! I don’t need the walls to actually bleed and hear GET OUUUUUT in a voice of doom before I exit, stage left!
between Bush tax cuts expiring and Harry Reid exploring an increase in Medicare payroll taxes and the various taxes coming down to the consumer from the trickle down of all the taxing the govt does in the healthcare and other spending bills, my best bet is I take a huge gamble and then Obama takes 30% at the MINIMUM? Frak it. No thanks. Anyway bottom line, if it’s a stock I don’t plan to hold for at least 10 years, I am out.
October retail sales up 1.4% , ex-autos up 0.2% (Steve Liesman noting worst consumer recession since 1970 welcome to reality there Steve!)
Also September revised DOWN to Down 2.3% vs original report of down 1.5%
Empire State Manufacturing Index also collapsing so anyone who looked at October’s 34.57 needs to rethink, November comes in at 23.51.
Dollar dropping, now tell me how the averages can continue to rise off the weak dollar when it is CLEAR the US consumer is still flat on their back and that is BEFORE the inevitable tax increases….the only decoupled thing here is the markets decoupled from reality…
Happy to report P/T work for MiM starting Monday the 16th (finally!)
MiM will have a light blogging schedule through the Holidays