Housing Double Dip revealed as New Sales plunge 17% m/m down 28% y/y to record low ~ Let the TBTF Games Begin!

Update at end of post

American Homeowners are Home Alone while Benny and the Feds continue to PROTECT TBTF BANKS as their ONE AND ONLY MANDATE.

New sales of single-family homes fell nearly 17% in February from a month earlier, coming in well below analysts’ estimates and at the lowest level recorded….

…February sales are down 28% from a year earlier….

And as we have been saying  til we’re blue in the face, it is now NATIONWIDE:

In the Northeast in February, new homes sales cratered, falling 57% from January, according to the joint release from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Okay you say, how about prices? What is the delta, the RATE of change? It is ACCELERATING TO THE DOWNSIDE~lowest price since December 2003~

…The median sales price of new homes sold last month was $202,100, down nearly 14% from January, representing the largest monthly decline yet….

Tiny Tim and Bankster Ben have been in full save the banks, ‘extend and pretend’ on housing mode for THREE YEARS.

And where has that gotten the REAL ECONOMY~ The Main St economy? Absolutely nowhere.

Where has that gotten the TBTF? They will still fail if they take the losses they NEED to take, but they have lots of nice bonuses and dividends (Except for BofA which is the redhaired stepchild and is allowed to wither on the vine sans dividends) and Jamie Dimon was even able to produce a $20Billion line of credit for ATT to become Ma Bell, again.

The economy on Main St will NOT RECOVER until housing is addressed in a MEANINGFUL way that allows consumers to correct their balance sheets.

You know, the way the TBTF are allowed to. The way CRE is allowed to. The way every Wall St firm is allowed to, by RESTRUCTURING THE DEBT. HOLC or real mods, pick your poison.

Or we can keep IGNORING the real problem and let the banks who MADE THE STUPID LOANS be the ONLY ONES who get off with NO LOSSES TAKEN while the US consumer continues to struggle for years under the housing morass as Ben prints to infinity and beyond like a deranged Buzz Lightyear.

To Hyperinflation and Beyond!!!

Update: Oh lookee here!! Chris Whalen says FAN FRED are hiding ANOTHER 100B in losses on their books! But TPTB and TBTF are claiming writing down homeowners principal will cost taxpayers? Bullshit. And don;t EVEN talk to me about moral hazard after the shxt the Fed is doing for the banks.

…Both investors and Congress need a lot more details about the purchases of defaulted loans by Fannie and Freddie. We need to know exactly how many dud loans have migrated back to the GSEs, what their loan loss reserve is, how much of that loan loss reserve is “covered” by the MIs and how much “capital” the MIs have against these exposures. The GSE are letting dead loans sit on their books in part to avoid recognizing the losses, an event that would drive many of the MIs into bankruptcy. If you look at how slow the process of final loss recognition by Fannie and Freddie is proceeding, then you’ll understand why the publicly disclosed loss rates reported by Fannie and Freddie have been falling.

Instead of demanding insurance payments, the GSEs are doing everything in their power to keep the MIs looking like going concerns so that they can count the MI “receivable” as a good asset. This is why the GSEs direct LTV based LLPAs to the MIs, to keep some cash flowing their way, and…

If there was a proper mark-to-market on the MIs (like all proper insurance/reinsurance businesses do), then the MIs would be massively insolvent. The GSEs would have to take another huge amount of capital from Treasury. Geithner and the GSEs are trying to avoid it, and to date are getting away with it….

March 23, 2011. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Leave a comment.

It’s Bad, It’s Nationwide: Case Shiller Index ~ housing continues to tank

like ZZ Top said~IT’S BAD, IT’S NATIONWIDE (& QE isnt doing JACK about it)

CNBC:

…Eleven of the markets hit their lowest point since the housing bust, in 2006 and 2007: Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Ore., Seattle and Tampa, Fla.

The damage from the real estate bubble now spreads well beyond the Sun Belt, where new homes cropped up at a frantic pace during the mid-2000s. In many places, prices are expected to keep falling for at least the next six months….

CaseShiller Index ~ housing continues to tank -…, posted with vodpod

February 22, 2011. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Leave a comment.

Housing: MERS gets nailed – Judge rules MERS cannot transfer mortgage rights, “MERS’s position that it can be both the mortgagee and an agent of the mortgagee is absurd, at best.”

Update 3: Case Caption for those inclined:

In re: FERREL L. AGARD, Debtor
Case No. 810-77338-reg
UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT EASTERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK

Update 2: Barry Ritholtz has the ruling and more up at The Big Picture.

Update 1: Read this piece at NakedCapitalism for more background on the horror of MERS. It was a work around for the TooBigToFail as they didnt have time for pesky County Recorder’s offices and processes and fees in their rush to securitize the shxt out of the entire country. Rife for fraud and property theft is the system the TBTF and MERS have created. It must be ended or no property is safe IMO.

FINALLY!!! Look for sudden legislation to appear tucked in a bill..per Judge’s ruling:

“It is up to the legislative branch, if it chooses, to amend the current statutes to confer upon MERS the requisite authority to assign mortgages under its current business practices.”

watch the Congress Critters carefully…especially those RE lovers like Isaakson..

Bloomberg:

“MERS’s theory that it can act as a ‘common agent’ for undisclosed principals is not supported by the law,” Grossman wrote in a Feb. 10 opinion. “MERS did not have authority, as ‘nominee’ or agent, to assign the mortgage absent a showing that it was given specific written directions by its principal.”…

…“MERS and its partners made the decision to create and operate under a business model that was designed in large part to avoid the requirements of the traditional mortgage-recording process,” Grossman wrote. “The court does not accept the argument that because MERS may be involved with 50 percent of all residential mortgages in the country, that is reason enough for this court to turn a blind eye to the fact that this process does not comply with the law.”…

February 14, 2011. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Leave a comment.

Case-Shiller: Housing in Double Dip, fourth consecutive month of dropping home prices

Here are the highlights lowlights:

Deceleration in 18 of 20 cities in the MSAS Annual Growth Rate

In October only 4 cities rose, LA, San Diego, SF & D.C. saw gains in house prices

-6 cities hit all new lows since the collapse began in 2006

CR breaks out the data reflecting previosuly strong housing markets now succumbing to the collapse:

…six markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices started to fall in 2006 and 2007…

Blitzer says the double dip is ‘almost here’ (from here in Phoenix I can tell you it has been here for a while, TPTB have just been hoping and praying it would ‘go away’ all by itself, NOT GONNA HAPPEN.

The US economy and the US consumer, and therefore, the global economy, which is dependent upon the US consumer, WILL NOT RECOVER until they FIX HOUSING. DO HOLC.

ONLY TOTAL SHILLS ARE STILL YAMMERING THAT THIS IS A BLIP AND HOUSING WILL FIND IT’S ‘TRUE BOTTOM’, THE SUPPLY IS 2 YRS AND GROWING WITH THE STRUCTURAL UE ISSUE, IT WILL JUST KEEP FALLING. RISING!

Obama and Geithner have left the BANKS in charge of this, the GSEs and the TBTF keep shuffling paper back and forth for buybacks and assorted BS. GET REAL, THE TAXPAYERS ARE ON THE HOOK FOR ALL OF IT AND WE ALL KNOW IT, JUST BITE THE BULLET AND DO THE DAMNED WRITE DOWNS.

The TBTF seem to be incapable of doing what NEEDS to be done to allow the economy to recover, the CONSUMER needs to be deleveraged from their massive housing debt. JUST DO IT.

CNBC:

..The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 1.0 percent in October from September on a seasonally adjusted basis, a much steeper drop than the 0.6 percent fall expected by economists….

Case-Shiller: Housing in Double Dip , fourth co…, posted with vodpod

December 28, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, TARP, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Leave a comment.

Housing: State AGs testify before Senate Banking Cmte on foreclosure fraud 2:30pm ET; securitization lobby strikes back at TARP COP report on failures

Update 7: Video added of Levitan explaining the losses must be taken, still, and the US taxpayer isnt taking them this time, no more bailouts, thus the TBTF need to eat the shxt they created. and added video of  NACA calling out Lowman of Chase. Clips courtesy of CSPAN and FDL TV

Update 6: Perfect end to this, Diana Olick, via ZeroHedge, reports the AGs are gonna kill the investigation and cut a WEAK deal to have some pitiful fund for possible restitution to ‘wronged’ homeowners, and an attempt to end the two track system wherein banks keep foreclosure proceedings open, timeline evolving, while evaluating homeowners for mods. Like I said, WEAK.  We need HOLC but we arent gonna get it. Lack of leadership.

My totally unprofessional advice: if you were reamed by servicers with fees and gouged with atty fees or forced placed insurance, or foreclosed on while in HAMP trial modification, or HAMP application process, then contact your STATE AG NOW. File a complaint with your state AG NOW.

Update 5: WSJ reports on modifications being the tool of choice for the AG settlement options and the legislators.

Update 4: Hmmm. CFO of Fannie resigns.

Update 3: Well it’s an oligarchy folks and the TBTF are in control. WASS. I disagree with David Dayen of FDL on practically everything, but he has been doing an excellent job following the foreclosure and housing crisis and the impact on the economy at large and we concur on this issue. He live blogged the hearing today here.

…Dodd says he held a summit on how to handle foreclosures with servicers in 2007. Servicers agreed to modifications, added resources to deal with the scale of delinquencies. Despite agreeing to that, the servicers simply failed to do any of this.

Dodd mentions people losing their homes without having mortgages. Banks were “too quick” to call robo-signing scandal a technical problem, seem emblematic of much deeper problems with servicing practices “putting homeowners at risk.” The current servicer business model “is broken” and not equipped to deal with the current crisis. Mentions financial disincentives to modification among servicers. Could be “extensive problems” throughout the servicing process. Quotes Sarah Bloom Raskin on all the servicer fraud. “Service-driven defaults,” mentions “forced-place insurance” scandal, failure to record transfer, failure to administer HAMP, failure to meet requirements of foreclosure process, and failure to manage trusts under pooling and servicing agreements.

Mentions COP report and systemic risk.

Dodd says he created Financial Stability Oversight Council to deal with exactly this issue. That’s a big deal; the FSOC doesn’t think this is a systemic risk.

Dodd says we need more robust loan modifications with real principal forgiveness, but should expedite foreclosures where the homes are vacant. Must put an end to this housing crisis….(go read the whole live blog!)

Chase claimed they never wrongfully foreclosed, at which point Bruce Marks of NACA jumped up with around 20 supporters and he yelled Perjury! and called the Chase Suit a liar, which the Chase suit clearly is. NACA has been unable to get JPMChase to throw any modification action their way so Marks is pixxed. BofA and others get a ‘pass’ from Marks and NACA because they play ball. If you want help from NACA you sign an agreement to go ‘protest; several times a year at their request.

Consumers are so screwed. Nary a peep from the much vaunted Consumer Protection Team led by the suddenly mute Elizabeth Warren.

The economy will not recover until the American consumer can deleverage and the TBTF MUST take a hit on the books a big hit to do that. It is the simple truth, let;s see how long they can pump $ to try to make the TBTF whole, they do not get it. UE will continue and more homeowners will default.

If the incentives which securitization skewed are not realigned and I would say restored, then there is NO PROFIT MOTIVE for the TBTF Servicers to make meaningful mods the way banks did time immemorial pre MSB bullshxt.

Bank of America is responding to the securitization fiasco by proclaiming they are in HAND TO HAND COMBAT with bondholders on putbacks of Countrywide loans that failed to comply with the PSAs. Fabulous.

To fix what the TBTF geniuses did by overleveraging the world on bad MBS loans they, the TBTF must take a hit, the GLOBAL taxpayers of the industrialized world have ALREADY taken HUGE hits, time to share the pain big boyz, write down losses on HELOCS, release the dead equity off the loans, let ALL refi to 3%

Give all GIs a home loan! There are answers but since they all involve the TBTF taking huge hits and decimating their bonus pools geithner and co cannot see them as options. Frakkers.

Update 2: The complete PDF of the Congressional Oversight Panel report on the mortgage securitization/foreclosure fraud fiasco.

Update: CSPAN now has the hearing listed as 3:15pm ET. Will be carried here

The Senate Banking Committee will hear testimony from the State AGS investigating what IS SYSTEMIC FORECLOSURE FRAUD AND A FAILURE OF THE SERVICING AND SECURITIZATION PROCESS today. Bankstas will be there to whine as well.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010
02:30 PM – 05:00 PM
538 Dirksen Senate Office Building

The witnesses will be: The Honorable Tom Miller, Attorney General, State of Iowa; Ms. Barbara J. Desoer, President, Bank of America Home Loans; Mr. David Lowman, CEO, Chase Home Lending; Mr. Adam J. Levitin, Associate Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law Center; and Ms. Diane Thompson, Counsel, National Consumer Law Center. Additional witnesses may be announced at a later date.

TBTF are still fraudulently foreclosing on Americans. Regardless of your feelings on this issue you should recognize the extreme danger to property rights and rule of law if the securitization fiasco via MERS is allowed to continue to  bypass state courts. No one’s property will be safe if TBTF can manufacture documentation and take your property without due process. PEOPLE WITHOUT LOANS ARE LOSING HOMES ALREADY. HOLC FTW. Sept 28 2008 HRC in WSJ on HOLC here.

HousingWire:

The Senate Banking Committee will hear testimony Tuesday from both sides of recent foreclosure problems at the major banks.

…Senate Banking Committee will hear testimony on the issue from Bank of America Home Loans President Barbara Desoer and JPMorgan Chase Home Lending CEO David Lowman. Speaking first will be Iowa AG Tom Miller, who is heading up the 50-state investigation.

Diane Thompson, counsel for the National Consumer Law Center, and Adam Levitin, an associate professor of law at Georgetown University will also testify.

Those listening in can expect Desoer and Lowman to elaborate on the amount of volume the banks are facing, and the others to demand action to sure up servicing operations…..

Oh cry me a fxckin river. The poor poor TooBigToFail shxtheads that took down the global economy are whining b/c they don’t have enough staff to foreclose?

I CALL BULLSHIT! They DELIBERATELY left peeps in homes to AVOID TOO MUCH INVENTORY DRAGGING DOWN PRICES.

They DELIBERATELY used HAMP as an EXTEND AND PRETEND vehicle to DRAIN FAMILY’S LAST RESOURCES only to turn around and deny the mod when the family had nothing left.

FXCK the TBTF. And Fxck the banksta backed Obamaites like Geithner who are selling Americans PROPERTY RIGHTS and RIGHTS TO DUE PROCESS down the river to avoid WRITING DOWN BAD PAPER, AND HELOCS.

The TBTF MADE THE LOANS, the TBTF DESIGNED THE ENTIRE SECURITIZATION PROCESS.

We, taxpayers, made them whole. They have failed to do jack shxt to help families.

Obama is an utter failure. Hillary would have done HOLC, This would be BEHIND US. We would be RECOVERING.

As we have said for THREE YEARS, there will be NO ECONOMIC RECOVERY if HOUSING is not addressed. DO THE DAMNED HOLC.

Meanwhile back at the ranch the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel (TARP COP) REAMED the securitization market in a report today based on a hearing two weeks ago.

..”I’m concerned about Treasury making representations categorically that you don’t see a systemic risk,” Silvers told Treasury’s chief homeownership officer. “And let me walk you through exactly why.”

“That letter asks for $47 billion of mortgages — of mortgage- backed securities to be repurchased at par,” Silvers went on. “Do you know what those mortgages are currently carried at … the market value of those bonds today?”

Caldwell declined to comment.

Silvers continued:

“OK, fine. Let me tell you what the Fed says they’re worth. The Fed tells us they’re worth 50 cents on the dollar. So if the Fed’s request to Bank of America is honored, right, Bank of America, assuming they are carrying these bonds, assuming when they buy them back they mark them to market, Bank of America will take a $23 billion loss.

“The Federal Reserve further informs us that there is nothing particularly unique about that particular set of mortgage-backed securities — meaning they have not been chosen…because they’re particularly bad. They believe they are of a common quality with the rest of Bank of America’s underwritten mortgage-backed securities. There are $2 trillion [worth] of Bank of America’s underwritten mortgage-backed securities.

“Five such deals — five such requests, if honored to Bank of America…will amount to more than the current market capitalization of Bank of America, which is $115 billion.

“Now do you wish to retract your statement that there is no systemic risk in this situation? And the word is ‘risk’ — not ‘certainty’ — but ‘risk’? And I would urge you to do so, because these things can be embarrassing later.”…

From the report issued today:

…”Clear and uncontested property rights are the foundation of the housing market,” the report said. “If these rights fall into question, that foundation could collapse. Borrowers may be unable to determine whether they are sending their monthly payments to the right people. Judges may block any effort to foreclose, even in cases where borrowers have failed to make regular payments.”…

Better do HOLC now Bankstas NO MORE TAXPAYER BAILOUT $ FOR YOU!!!! FHA will take until 2014 to get to 2% MANDATED reserves!! Good Grief!! And ‘experts’ agree, HOUSING IS GOING DOWN AGAIN.

SIFMA the IDIOTS who designed the securitization process and who lobby for it madly have a typical it’s all lies! everything is fine! response courtesy the NYT acting as mouthpiece for Obama positions as always via Naked Capitalism:

..No Breaks for Robo-signing Computer Stamping Files“:

It doesn’t matter when mortgage assignments and endorsements are recorded because the existence of the pooling and service agreement and purchase sale agreement is proof in itself that the loan was conveyed, said Stephen Ornstein, a partner in the Washington office of SNR Denton, a law firm that represents loan servicers and lenders.

“If the assignment is missing, you can create it by having the old assignee reassign it to you,” Ornstein said.

I’ve heard this argument before, and none of the five experts who advise New York state on trust matters (and virtually all mortgage securitizations use New York trusts) accept that point of view. New York trusts can accept assets only as stipulated in their governing agreement. The pooling and servicing agreement made very specific provisions as to how the notes (the borrower IOUs) were to be endorsed and further required that the process be completed by specific dates, typically no later than 90 days after the trust was closed, with only very limited exceptions. And the trustee, on behalf of the trust, was required to provide multiple certifications that all these steps had been taken.

Let’s put it another way: the industry position is that the underlying contract, the pooling and servicing agreement, can just be ignored if the industry screws up on a grand enough scale. Would any servicer tolerate this argument if someone, say Treasury, tried to cut their fees? Funny how the “sanctity of contract” argument is nowhere to be found when adherence to contracts might crimp industry profits….

The soopergeniuses in D.C. and on Wall St have tried everything EXCEPT meaningful mods, helping homeowners, principal writedowns-HOLC. Nothing is working. DO THE DAMNED HOLC ALREADY.

EVEN CATO IS NOW BEHIND HOLC!!

November 16, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 1 comment.

Mind bending dissolution of housing/foreclosure law as we have known it continues apace: Will Obama destroy property rights and rule of law for TooBigToFail ZombieBanks constantly threatening TEOTWAWKI? Elizabeth Warren on the Fraud – ‘This is a Very Big Problem’; Citibank Report ‘Foreclosures Gone Wild’

Citibank Report ‘Foreclosures Gone Wild’ and the ramifications to MBS REMICs and more happy, happy, joy joy courtesy of Market Ticker who summarizes thusly:

…In the best-case scenario, the banks are lying (again) and it will take a year to sort out (during which time they will bleed like a stuck pig on their servicing costs and obligations.)  In the medium scenario they get sued to Mars and, which he didn’t say but I will, all wind up eating the bad paper which forces them into resolution – shareholders are wiped out and bondholders take a nice chop-chop. And in the worse-case scenario the title companies say “fuggit” and it all blows up instantly.

There’s no scenario under which “it’s all ok” folks.

 

October 12, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Leave a comment.

Housing – Details on FHA Refi program launching next month

Another update, courtesy of CR and Diana Olick, HUD says no talks underway for another FTHB tax credit. Good, it is useless:

Diana Olick at CNBC contacted HUD today: Another Home Buyer Tax Credit?

[A] HUD spokesperson … responded: “No news here…there are no discussions underway to revive the credit.”

Here’s a song for anyone suffering through HAMP or HousingHell-

Above the post update- from Sunday:

HENRY: But in May, you said we are beginning to turn the corner (on housing). Can you still say that? Are we still turning the corner when these numbers are so awful?

DONOVAN: Ed, compared to where we were — and I am talking about where we have been for the last 18 months, the housing market, no question was significantly better. The issue now and what we are focused on is the future.

Shaun Donovan, HUD Chief, was telling America Sunday that HAMP worked just fine! I cannot even laugh at that having been in the Eighth Circle of Hell known as the HAMP application process.

So 500,000 people were strung along, paid on time, and were then kicked off the program and out of their houses much worse off financially and emotionally, and that was fine, right Donovan? the important thing was to protect TBTF from taking  hit on inventory flooding markets right ? Man these folks pixx me off. And just how did that work out? WE ARE IN THE EXACT SAME POSITION!

In fact, it is worse. NOW homeowners no longer TRUST these half axxed Govt programs, they KNOW we are being strung along, so now WALK AWAY is in the minds of the middle class, FAIR GAME. You MORONS are BREAKING the PARADIGM!

Continuing the ‘doing everything but the right thing’  meme, HUD is rolling out another iteration of help for homeowners that shovels tax $ to TBTF without actually, you know, HELPING the actual homeowners.

Maybe this will be done as the MS White Paper suggested which I think makes sense. If not, it is a drop in the bucket of overflowing programs that just prop up TBTF and do nothing to address the underlying issue: consumer balance sheets MUST be fixed to get the economy growing again, period.

HousingWire:

According to a mortgagee letter sent out today, the new program would provide additional refinancing options to underwater homeowners starting Sept. 7. To be eligible for the new loan, the homeowner must be underwater but still current on the mortgage. A credit score of 500 or better is required, and once refinanced and insured by the FHA. The new refinanced loan must have a loan-to-value ratio of no more than 97.75%.

The borrower’s existing first-lien holder must agree to write at least 10% of the unpaid principal balance, and it must bring the borrower’s combined loan-to-value ratio on that first mortgage to no more than 115%. The existing refinanced loan cannot be an FHA-insured one.

Over the last 18 months, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has insured 30% of purchases and 20% of refinances in the housing market. During that time, FHA also helped 1.1m homeowners refinance and insured 1.4m mortgages. More than 80% of those were for first-time homebuyers.

Donovan said the refinance program will target the growing number of underwater borrowers, who owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth…

God Bless America. I hope this saves some homes for some families. TBTF does not need anymore of our tax $ they are sitting on over a trillion already.

Update: Oh look, Trez has decided GSE backed mortgages, will NOT be aLLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE PROGRAM! tHE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT needs to happen, sorry damned caplock! I dont have time to fix it, here you go:

KBW said the FHA refi program is unlikely to have “any meaningful impact” on agency MBS, because only 8% of Freddie Mac and 14% of Fannie Mae mortgages have LTVs in excess of 100%. Additionally, the firm noted the Treasury Department has said the government would not consider allowing the GSEs to write-down underwater mortgages.

So IOW it is another BS head fake program to slow inventory. They wont be happy until housing takes the economy down again, it is already happening. The stupid it burns!

August 30, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Leave a comment.

Housing – Will NAR fudge the data on July existing home sales? Sales fell *OFF A CLIFF*

Do the folks over at NAR have the bxlls to print the data on existing home sales tomorrow? Indications from the real world are a drop of a minimum of 20%. I am gonna say NAR gives us the unvarnished, SCARYUGLY truth to build pressure for QE2 or REQE(whatevernumberwereon), so a SAAR of 3.77 million says I.

Tom Lawlor gives us the latest ‘Consensus’, which is starting to sound like some disease,

…amazingly the “consensus” forecast for existing home sales in July calls for a SAAR of 4.65-4.66 million, which would be down just 9.3-9.5% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace….

Read Tom Lawlor’s guest piece on CalculatedRisk outlining his take on the number.

Will NAR lowball it even further, a kitchen sink, report? Will they try to ‘smoothe’ the data over the next few months hoping we hit a ledge or a meteor hits us?

…One forecaster (no names!), after hearing about the local sales data, suggested that the NAR “just won’t” publish a sales number that low, and will probably “smooth” the number over the next several months!!!…

Or will they do what needs to be done and report the damned data as it really is so people can come to grips. If they plan to do QE2 and the USD is going back down, let’s flag the play so we in the stands can load up the popcorn and precious!

Tune in tomorrow morning 10:00am EST to find out!

Will the market wig out on the data? Stick its fingers in its ears and say La La La all the way to 11k? Who the hell knows, it has become an irrational thing being run out of TPTB and TBTF monsters as far as I can tell.

CalculatedRisk-10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for a decrease to 4.65 million (SAAR) in July from 5.37 million in June. Take the under! Housing economist Tom Lawler is projecting 3.95 million SAAR. In addition to sales, the level of inventory and months-of-supply will be very important (since months-of-supply impacts prices).CR:

August 23, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Leave a comment.

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