Do the folks over at NAR have the bxlls to print the data on existing home sales tomorrow? Indications from the real world are a drop of a minimum of 20%. I am gonna say NAR gives us the unvarnished, SCARYUGLY truth to build pressure for QE2 or REQE(whatevernumberwereon), so a SAAR of 3.77 million says I.
Tom Lawlor gives us the latest ‘Consensus’, which is starting to sound like some disease,
…amazingly the “consensus” forecast for existing home sales in July calls for a SAAR of 4.65-4.66 million, which would be down just 9.3-9.5% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace….
Read Tom Lawlor’s guest piece on CalculatedRisk outlining his take on the number.
Will NAR lowball it even further, a kitchen sink, report? Will they try to ‘smoothe’ the data over the next few months hoping we hit a ledge or a meteor hits us?
…One forecaster (no names!), after hearing about the local sales data, suggested that the NAR “just won’t” publish a sales number that low, and will probably “smooth” the number over the next several months!!!…
Or will they do what needs to be done and report the damned data as it really is so people can come to grips. If they plan to do QE2 and the USD is going back down, let’s flag the play so we in the stands can load up the popcorn and precious!
Tune in tomorrow morning 10:00am EST to find out!
Will the market wig out on the data? Stick its fingers in its ears and say La La La all the way to 11k? Who the hell knows, it has become an irrational thing being run out of TPTB and TBTF monsters as far as I can tell.
CalculatedRisk-10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for a decrease to 4.65 million (SAAR) in July from 5.37 million in June. Take the under! Housing economist Tom Lawler is projecting 3.95 million SAAR. In addition to sales, the level of inventory and months-of-supply will be very important (since months-of-supply impacts prices).CR:
The IL SoS has gone ahead and signed ‘a certification’ . Not ‘the cert’, the one Blago signed that Harry has been whining about, but ‘a’ certification that he, AG Madigan and the IL SC said did not need to be signed.
It has been sent to Reid, who is claiming the Senate legal experts are reviewing it…
(This is L’amours in Brooklyn, one of MiM’s old stomping grounds, ahhh those were the days, lol…courtesy of MaxBonesBlack)
“The Senate Parliamentarian, the Secretary of the Senate and Senate Legal Counsel are advising Senate Leadership as we consider a way forward,” said Jim Manley, Reid’s spokesman, on Friday evening.
This latest development gives Democrats a way out of a sticky situation. The Illinois Supreme Court said White does not need to sign the appointment papers even though the Senate requires him to get White’s signature before he can assume office. White has refused to sign the document, but signed the Jan. 9 certificate and plans to send it to the Senate along with Burris’ appointment papers.
Immediately after the court ruling, Burris declared victory and said it would lead to his appointment to the Senate.
“I am very happy that the Supreme Court ruled supporting our argument that everything surrounding this appointment was legal and complete,” Burris said in a statement. “This appointment meets the qualifications required by the U.S. Senate of all gubernatorial appointees to fill vacated seats.”
White responded by declaring that he was not going to sign anything and claimed vindicated that the Illinois Supreme Court doesn’t think he has to do so.
Yet White later decided to sign a separate declaration affirming Burris’ appointment. (MiM here, think he got a ‘call’ from Senate ? uhm yeah )
Word to Harry, take this last best chance at saving face and get over yourself already…
Irrespective of whether it is signed, MiM and many legal opinionators of note theorize that SCOTUS would easily knock down Reid’s paltry claims of tradition and their ROOL. As IL SC noted in their ruling yesterday, the Senate ROOL II says nada about a signature and even if it did, the Senate has ZERO power to enforce arbitrary roolz on the states which have the protection of the Constitution on appointing/electing their representatives to the Congress..
And no, appoint/elect makes no difference….if we weren’t in such trying times I would LURB for Reid to stick his neck out just a wee a bit farther and give us the smack-down from SCOTUS that would end this BS once and for all so they NEVER EVER try to exceed their authority this way again..but alas times are exceedingly tough and as MiM has said from the get-go the people of Illinois DESERVE FULL REPRESENTATION….
Suck it up and walk it off Harry, you have bungled once again, and White has given you ANOTHER out, take it.
One more time, Harry Reid cannot fight his way out of a wet paper bag. We need a new leader, preferably one with cojones, I would suggest Hillary as I have in the past, but she has other work to do…