like ZZ Top said~IT’S BAD, IT’S NATIONWIDE (& QE isnt doing JACK about it)
…Eleven of the markets hit their lowest point since the housing bust, in 2006 and 2007: Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Ore., Seattle and Tampa, Fla.
The damage from the real estate bubble now spreads well beyond the Sun Belt, where new homes cropped up at a frantic pace during the mid-2000s. In many places, prices are expected to keep falling for at least the next six months….
…After reviewing the data, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Committee believes that, for the present, the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator and, thus, reports should focus on the year-over-year changes where seasonal shifts are not a factor. Additionally, if monthly changes are considered, the unadjusted series should be used….
this is unlike any other housing drop, in terms of severity and government intervention, so any series cannot capture where prices are going..
…On an unadjusted basis, prices dropped 0.9 percent in February, worse than the estimated 0.3 percent decline and following a 0.4 percent downturn in January….
…The report suggests more price erosion is possible before prices start rising on a sustained basis, S&P said. The price improvement can be attributed to momentum from the federal homebuyer tax credits, which expire on April 30, and prices could be pressured further by foreclosure sales….
More on falling prices from First Logic via Calculated Risk:
…On a month-over-month basis, the national average home price index fell by 2.0 percent in February 2010 compared to January 2010, which was steeper than the previous one-month decline of 1.6 percent from December to January…
Best financials analyst on the street Meredith Whitney’s latest comments on financials and housing via CNBC:
Beleaguered banking giant Goldman Sachs has lost much of the edge it had over competitors due to the recent government charges and is a stock investors should avoid, analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.
…(GS) faces a future in which its brand has been tainted and it will lose business to small competitors, said Whitney, who doesn’t have a “buy” rating on Goldman or any of the other big banks…
…The company’s stock should trade around book value, Whitney added, which would place the price just above $120….
Reasserts the double dip in housing-
…On other issues, Whitney called proposed new financial reform regulations “squishy” but said the result will be banks shrinking their balance sheets and consumers forced to seek predatory lenders for credit.
She also renewed her prediction that the housing market would see a double dip as more inventory is forced back onto the market.
Not a single, solitary reason that Harry Reid deserves to keep his seat. Vegas is in even worse shape than Phoenix and continues to fall like a stone while he fraks around with Pelosi’s wish list:
…S&P’s David Blitzer called the report “mixed,” noting, “The rebound in housing prices seen last fall is fading.”
Prices in 10 major metropolitan areas were flat in January from a year earlier, while the index for 20 major metropolitan areas dropped 0.7% year over year….
…Compared with a year earlier, Las Vegas continued to be hit the hardest, 17% lower than a year earlier. Month-to-month gainers, sans seasonal adjustment, were headlined by Los Angeles and San Diego showing slight improvements, while all the other markets showed a decline. Four markets — Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa — reported new price lows for the current cycle.
At this pace we may have to begin calling Vegas, Detroit West.
Video Update: Market Movers this week: Case Shiller Index-still declining but off lows, monthly jobs report Friday…
Update 2: More on that shadow inventory courtesy of Smart Money:
(…)the outlook for housing by Amherst Securities Group, whose stuff we’ve quoted before and whose analysis is invariably first-rate. The report, dated last Wednesday, festooned with gory detail, focuses on the swollen overhang, the so-called shadow inventory, that has grown inexorably in the wake of the tsunami of default and foreclosure.
Amherst estimates this massive overhang at seven million units. That’s the equivalent of 135% of a full year’s existing-home sales and chillingly greater than the 1.27 million units that made up the overhang in early 2005, when the housing bubble had just begun its dizzying and more than a little lunatic ascent.
…Three factors are cited by Amherst as the chief culprits in this sorry narrative. The first is the rapidity with which what it describes as the nonperforming bucket (where the mortgages are at least 60 days delinquent) is filling. The second is the strikingly low “cure rate” on delinquent loans. In 2005, homeowners retrieved 66% of their loans delinquent 60 days or longer. That percentage shriveled to a paltry 5% in the second quarter of ’09.
And, finally, bloating the inventory overhang is the lengthening time between delinquency and liquidation. Of the loans in the delinquent pipeline in August 2009, 9% have not made a payment in over 24 months, compared with 4% in 2008. The reasons cited by Amherst for this stretching out include moratoriums on foreclosures and the slow pace of the judicial process in states where a judge’s O.K. is required for foreclosure...GO READ THE WHOLE EXCELLENT PIECE!
UPDATE: More on the Case Shiller Home Price Index:
- 10 & 20 city composites are up 3.6% from their lows.
These guys are hyping minimal improvement here, AGAIN. SHOCKAH! They are looking at month-to-month which is not the way to gauge, you need y/y in RE!
Here comes David Blitzer to break it out- he sees ‘clear signs it is turning up’, it ‘will be slow’ still ‘clear risk there may be backsliding at some point but it definitely looks encouraging’ Erin Burnette is ‘clinging’ to the ALMOST FLAT Y/Y for Dallas and Denver HA! Blitzer notes they include foreclosure sales and anecdotal data is foreclosures are out there, and he acknowledges the resets in 2010 are coming, and HA he finally notes the tax credit is ending in November, ya!
Here is the REAL DATA YEAR OVER YEAR from the same report – 1 YEAR CHANGE:
Dallas down 1.6%
Denver down 2.9%
Detroit down 24.6%
Las Vegas down 31.4%
L.A. down 14.9%
Miami down 21.2%
Minneapolis down 17.3%
New York down 10.3%
Phoenix down 28.5% (ouch!)
Portland down 13.9%
San Diego down 12.3%
San Francisco down 17.9%
Seattle down 15.3%
Tampa down 18.4%
Washington down 9.8%
THESE ARE NOT GOOD NUMBERS FOLKS!!!!
Here are the ridiculous tiny blips they are getting excited about, recall these are the 30 day change from June to July in %:
Atlanta up 2.3%
Boston up 1.2%
Charlotte up 0.6% (wow let’s take out some equity and restart the economy! uhm NOT!)
Continues after the break:
The S&P/Case-Shiller composite indexes of 10 and 20 metropolitan areas both rose 1.4 percent in June from May, almost three times the 0.5 percent increases of the month before. May’s increases were the first in nearly three years.”It is an impressive turnaround. This is a huge, sudden, upward swing,” Robert Shiller, economist at the Yale School of Management, told CNBC in a live interview.
IMO year over year is the real figure to watch and that delta is slowing, finally.
The 10- and 20-city indexes have dropped 54.3 percent and 45.3 percent from their 2006 peaks, respectively.
…S&P also said its U.S. National Home Price Index recorded a 14.9 percent decline for the second quarter, compared with a 19.1 percent year-over-year drop in the first quarter…
Shawn Colvin/Veronica Mars mix courtesy of truemyth
Pace of declines slowing? It would be a start on a bottom…..talk about a stretch for good news though, the rate moderated from a y/y drop of 18.7% to a y/y drop of 18.1%, a .06% improvement, nothing to write home about, pardon the pun….
…The index of 20 metropolitan areas dipped 0.6 percent in April from March, after a 2.2 percent decline the month before, for an 18.1 percent downturn from a year earlier.
S&P said its index of 10 metropolitan areas declined 0.6 percent in April for an 18 percent year-over-year drop, after falling 2.1 percent month on month in March.
The rate of annual decline in these measures has improved, from 18.7 percent for both indexes in March.
“While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun, it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. “We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here.”…
Defaults on privately insured U.S. mortgages rose in May following three months of declines, and the number brought up to date fell, providing new evidence that the nation’s housing market is still deteriorating.
The Mortgage Insurance Companies of America, a trade group, said 87,904 insured borrowers were at least 60 days late on payments in May, up 8 percent from April and up 29 percent from a year earlier. Late payments often foreshadow foreclosure.Mortgages brought up to date totaled just 52,590, down 10 percent from April and the fewest since January. But so-called insurance cures were up 29 percent from a year earlier.
Private mortgage insurance lets people buy homes with down payments of less than 20 percent, and guarantees that lenders will be repaid even if borrowers default. Insurance in force totaled $922 billion in May, the trade group said.
The industry has been tightening its standards after struggling with losses from having backed subprime and other risky mortgages, which have eaten into capital. Increasingly, mortgage providers are demanding 20 percent down payments, which could obviate the need for mortgage insurance.
In addition, while most major U.S. home loan providers adopted mortgage-modification programs in the last year to keep borrowers in their homes, many foreclosure moratoriums expired in March…
In other news PPIP is going forward and GE is getting money from it..shockah! Frakkers….
Still no bottom in housing prices….
Breaking now.…will update as it is coming in…
Foreclosures have been continuing to rise, creating additional inventory that is driving prices lower…
Case-Shiller Index continues to drop:
A widely watched index shows home prices fell at the sharpest rate ever in the first quarter.The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller National Home Price index released Tuesday reported home prices tumbled by 19.1 percent in the first quarter, the most in its 21-year history.
Home prices have fallen 32.2 percent since peaking in the second quarter of 2006 and are at levels not seen since the end of 2002.
The 20-city index fell by 18.7 percent in March from the year before and the 10-city index lost 18.6 percent.