Do the folks over at NAR have the bxlls to print the data on existing home sales tomorrow? Indications from the real world are a drop of a minimum of 20%. I am gonna say NAR gives us the unvarnished, SCARYUGLY truth to build pressure for QE2 or REQE(whatevernumberwereon), so a SAAR of 3.77 million says I.
Tom Lawlor gives us the latest ‘Consensus’, which is starting to sound like some disease,
…amazingly the “consensus” forecast for existing home sales in July calls for a SAAR of 4.65-4.66 million, which would be down just 9.3-9.5% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace….
Read Tom Lawlor’s guest piece on CalculatedRisk outlining his take on the number.
Will NAR lowball it even further, a kitchen sink, report? Will they try to ‘smoothe’ the data over the next few months hoping we hit a ledge or a meteor hits us?
…One forecaster (no names!), after hearing about the local sales data, suggested that the NAR “just won’t” publish a sales number that low, and will probably “smooth” the number over the next several months!!!…
Or will they do what needs to be done and report the damned data as it really is so people can come to grips. If they plan to do QE2 and the USD is going back down, let’s flag the play so we in the stands can load up the popcorn and precious!
Tune in tomorrow morning 10:00am EST to find out!
Will the market wig out on the data? Stick its fingers in its ears and say La La La all the way to 11k? Who the hell knows, it has become an irrational thing being run out of TPTB and TBTF monsters as far as I can tell.
CalculatedRisk-10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for a decrease to 4.65 million (SAAR) in July from 5.37 million in June. Take the under! Housing economist Tom Lawler is projecting 3.95 million SAAR. In addition to sales, the level of inventory and months-of-supply will be very important (since months-of-supply impacts prices).CR: