Update 3: DOW down 200…Wen on economic recovery…DOW opens down 100…Market Mover Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Index collapses: loss doubles analyst estimates….
Update 3: DOW now down over 200..biggest drop since May 13th if youre keeping track…We have been out since May….as the US Dollar rises and the deficit spending keeps ramping up well I dunno stagflation perhaps? the strong dollar is kicking commodities butt however the markets do not like it….I think it is a reality check on the markets take your gains and go home, with no sign whatsoever that TOTUS plans to slow spending the dollar cannot stay here for long IMO, it is over 81 now…
Update 2: FT covers comments from Chinese Prmier Wen, casting doubt on the recovery. Well yeah, MiM has noted many times the likelihood of a Chinese led recovery without an American consumer to you know CONSUME was unlikely but the summer traders were ..you know…trading….sure it’s great for traders but not for investors….investors need to see an actual light at the end of the tunnel and Markey, Waxman, Kennedy, Dodd and Baucus are trying to light a stick of dynamite calling it a candle with the proposed carbon tax and unfunded health care plans….you cannot spend your way to prosperity and regular Americans know it…..we are all in wait mode now trying to outlast these loony spending plans and hoping they dont do too much damage….but I digress…lol
FT:
Commodities staged a broad retreat on Monday as a stronger dollar and cautious comments from Chinese premier Wen Jibao over the durability of economic recovery in the world’s third largest economy weighed on investor enthusiasm.
…Comments from Wen that the drop off in foreign demand for Chinese goods could hamper the country’s economic growth (GEE YA THINK? NO SHXT SHERLOCK ECONOMISTS!!) knocked the confidence of investors convinced that a sharp upturn in Chinese demand will reinvigorate the commodities markets.
My Gold has been getting it’s axx kicked by the dollar, but MiM still believes Gold is essential insurance against dollar losses in anyone’s portfolio..and we are still buying on any dip that takes us to 900…here is the bear case on gold:
…Gold also suffered, falling 0.5 per cent to $933.95 per troy ounce.
“At present, there are many reasons for acting more cautiously on the gold market,” said analysts at Dresdner Klienwort.
“First, regardless of the market reaction, the medium term risk of a strong inflation has abated. Second, jewellery demand remains very weak, as gold jewellery is a luxury good and, demand declines in an economic crisis. In our view, gold will continue to be impacted by the US dollar”.
Update: DOW opens down 120 to 8679, S & P down 14 to 932 and NAS down 22 to 1836…
Manufacturing continues to retreat despite the delusions of the traders and economists who would like the recession to be over. Perhaps it would be over if we had not intervened to the degree we have, but no sane businessperson would invest capital in this regulatory environment…as the Index shows, we are doubling down on our losses in manufacturing:
…The New York Fed’s “Empire State” general business conditions index fell to minus 9.41 in June from minus 4.55 in May. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a June reading of minus 4.5.
…The survey of manufacturing plants in the state is one of the earliest monthly guideposts to U.S. factory conditions.
The fall in the main index came as shipments dropped into negative territory, coming in at minus 4.84 in June from positive 1.29 in May.
New orders remained negative at minus 8.15 but not quite as bad as May’s 9.01.
Moderate in the Middle 