Video Update: Market Movers this week: Case Shiller Index-still declining but off lows, monthly jobs report Friday…

Update 2: More on that shadow inventory courtesy of Smart Money:

(…)the outlook for housing by Amherst Securities Group, whose stuff we’ve quoted before and whose analysis is invariably first-rate. The report, dated last Wednesday, festooned with gory detail, focuses on the swollen overhang, the so-called shadow inventory, that has grown inexorably in the wake of the tsunami of default and foreclosure.

Amherst estimates this massive overhang at seven million units. That’s the equivalent of 135% of a full year’s existing-home sales and chillingly greater than the 1.27 million units that made up the overhang in early 2005, when the housing bubble had just begun its dizzying and more than a little lunatic ascent.

…Three factors are cited by Amherst as the chief culprits in this sorry narrative. The first is the rapidity with which what it describes as the nonperforming bucket (where the mortgages are at least 60 days delinquent) is filling. The second is the strikingly low “cure rate” on delinquent loans. In 2005, homeowners retrieved 66% of their loans delinquent 60 days or longer. That percentage shriveled to a paltry 5% in the second quarter of ’09.

And, finally, bloating the inventory overhang is the lengthening time between delinquency and liquidation. Of the loans in the delinquent pipeline in August 2009, 9% have not made a payment in over 24 months, compared with 4% in 2008. The reasons cited by Amherst for this stretching out include moratoriums on foreclosures and the slow pace of the judicial process in states where a judge’s O.K. is required for foreclosure...GO READ THE WHOLE EXCELLENT PIECE!


UPDATE: More on the Case Shiller Home Price Index:

  • 10 & 20 city composites are up 3.6% from their lows.

These guys are hyping minimal improvement here, AGAIN. SHOCKAH! They are looking at month-to-month which is not the way to gauge, you need y/y in RE!

Here comes David Blitzer to break it out- he sees ‘clear signs it is turning up’, it ‘will be slow’ still ‘clear risk there may be backsliding at some point but it definitely looks encouraging’ Erin Burnette is ‘clinging’ to the ALMOST FLAT Y/Y for Dallas and Denver HA! Blitzer notes they include foreclosure sales and anecdotal data is foreclosures are out there, and he acknowledges the resets in 2010 are coming, and HA he finally notes the tax credit is ending in November, ya!

Here is the REAL DATA YEAR OVER YEAR from the same report – 1 YEAR CHANGE:

Dallas down 1.6%

Denver down 2.9%

Detroit down 24.6%

Las Vegas down 31.4%

L.A. down 14.9%

Miami down 21.2%

Minneapolis down 17.3%

New York down 10.3%

Phoenix down 28.5% (ouch!)

Portland down 13.9%

San Diego down 12.3%

San Francisco down 17.9%

Seattle down 15.3%

Tampa down 18.4%

Washington down 9.8%


Here are the ridiculous tiny blips they are getting excited about, recall these are the 30 day change from June to July in %:

Atlanta up 2.3%

Boston up 1.2%

Charlotte up 0.6% (wow let’s take out some equity and restart the economy! uhm NOT!)

Continues after the break:

Chicago up 2.7%

Cleveland up 1.5%

Dallas up 1.2%

Denver up 1.5%

Detroit up 1.1%

Las Vegas down 1.1%

LA up 1.8%

Miami up 1.3%

Minneapolis up 4.6%

New York up 0.8%

Phoenix up 1.8%

Portland up 1.1%

San Diego up 2.5%

San Francisco up 3.3%

Seattle down 0.1%

Tampa up 1.4%

Washington up 1.8%

Any GOOD RE analyst will tell you that month over month is filled with statistical noise and is not to be counted on for a trend, also the new home buyers tax credit ends in November and we are entering the seasonally week sales period for housing PLUS the SHADOW INVENTORY is out there….

THE SHADOW KNOWS, muuuhuuuhaaaaa. Frakkers at the banks aren’t taking the write downs….latest WOTS is the Congress in their infinite wisdom HA! will cave to RE and put in new tax credit which will just continue to distort the market and prevent the necessary corrections….arrgle…

CNBC: Case Shiller breaking now-

  • All 20 metro areas show improvement in annual rates of decline
  • Over last 30 days 18 of 20 cities see increase in home prices
  • 19 of 20 cities have home prices above their lows

Remember the SHADOW INVENTORY peeps! Don’t get hooked on a happy happy joy joy feeling, housing has a BIG second leg down coming IMO…

Sharon Epperson is reporting on the floor of the CBOT that China is making a 60 BILLION move for control of the Nigerian Oil market, this as the Senate Dems prepare to introduce their cap and trade travesty….

September 29, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Housing, Labor Department, Wall St.

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