Market Mover Tuesday: 3Q GDP revision, Case Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, FDIC bank update & Fed Meeting Minutes

Update: Here we go, 3Q GDP first revision is 2.8% (from original read of 3.5%) Consumer spending revised down to 2.9 from 3.4, final sales up 1.9 vs 2.5..When you strip out govt spending looks like this GDP would have been negative…

Heavy day for data:

…Tuesday’s calendar is heavy on news about housing and the consumer, plus there is the revision to third quarter GDP.  The Fed’s Nov. 4 meeting minutes are released at 2 p.m. and the FDIC gives an update on banks and bank earnings. There is an auction of $42 billion in 5-year notes at 1 p.m.

Fed minutes are being watched carefully both for an economic update and any inkling of what Fed policy makers are thinking about what could trigger a move in rates. The Fed’s last statement signaled the market that there are no changes coming from the Fed any time soon, which is conducive to the risk rally.

The S&P/Case Shiller home price survey is released at 9 a.m. while consumer confidence is reported at 10 a.m. GDP is released at 8:30 a.m.Economists expect to see GDP revised to show growth of 2.8 percent, down from the initial reading of 3.5 percent. LaVorgna’s estimate is for 3 percent. “I’ve got a downward revision, largely on the back of softer construction spending and a wider trade deficit,” said LaVorgna. He said one wild card that could add to the number is capital spending, which was surprisingly weak in the first report.

“The other thing you want to look for is we get the first read of economy wide corporate profits. In the first half of the year, corporate profits grew at a nearly 20 percent annualized rate. I think you’re going to see a pretty good corporate profit number based on the fact that nominal GDP went positive,” he said.

Traders are split about how long the tightly linked risk trade will work. Steve Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Securities, said Monday that he’s hedging his bet and is beginning to short assets that benefit from the trade.

Sounds like the love affair the markets are having with the weak dollar is winding down (Thank Gawd)…

“The dollar is getting close to 2008 lows, and it could start to become bad news, and you have to prepare for it,”  he said. “We haven’t taken the plunge yet but we’re starting to nibble on the idea that the dollar going down is no longer going to create levity.”...

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November 24, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, FDIC, Finance, Housing, Politics, Wall St. Comments off.

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