Video Update: Market Movers this week: Case Shiller Index-still declining but off lows, monthly jobs report Friday…

Update 2: More on that shadow inventory courtesy of Smart Money:

(…)the outlook for housing by Amherst Securities Group, whose stuff we’ve quoted before and whose analysis is invariably first-rate. The report, dated last Wednesday, festooned with gory detail, focuses on the swollen overhang, the so-called shadow inventory, that has grown inexorably in the wake of the tsunami of default and foreclosure.

Amherst estimates this massive overhang at seven million units. That’s the equivalent of 135% of a full year’s existing-home sales and chillingly greater than the 1.27 million units that made up the overhang in early 2005, when the housing bubble had just begun its dizzying and more than a little lunatic ascent.

…Three factors are cited by Amherst as the chief culprits in this sorry narrative. The first is the rapidity with which what it describes as the nonperforming bucket (where the mortgages are at least 60 days delinquent) is filling. The second is the strikingly low “cure rate” on delinquent loans. In 2005, homeowners retrieved 66% of their loans delinquent 60 days or longer. That percentage shriveled to a paltry 5% in the second quarter of ’09.

And, finally, bloating the inventory overhang is the lengthening time between delinquency and liquidation. Of the loans in the delinquent pipeline in August 2009, 9% have not made a payment in over 24 months, compared with 4% in 2008. The reasons cited by Amherst for this stretching out include moratoriums on foreclosures and the slow pace of the judicial process in states where a judge’s O.K. is required for foreclosure...GO READ THE WHOLE EXCELLENT PIECE!

wall-street21

UPDATE: More on the Case Shiller Home Price Index:

  • 10 & 20 city composites are up 3.6% from their lows.

These guys are hyping minimal improvement here, AGAIN. SHOCKAH! They are looking at month-to-month which is not the way to gauge, you need y/y in RE!

Here comes David Blitzer to break it out- he sees ‘clear signs it is turning up’, it ‘will be slow’ still ‘clear risk there may be backsliding at some point but it definitely looks encouraging’ Erin Burnette is ‘clinging’ to the ALMOST FLAT Y/Y for Dallas and Denver HA! Blitzer notes they include foreclosure sales and anecdotal data is foreclosures are out there, and he acknowledges the resets in 2010 are coming, and HA he finally notes the tax credit is ending in November, ya!

Here is the REAL DATA YEAR OVER YEAR from the same report – 1 YEAR CHANGE:

Dallas down 1.6%

Denver down 2.9%

Detroit down 24.6%

Las Vegas down 31.4%

L.A. down 14.9%

Miami down 21.2%

Minneapolis down 17.3%

New York down 10.3%

Phoenix down 28.5% (ouch!)

Portland down 13.9%

San Diego down 12.3%

San Francisco down 17.9%

Seattle down 15.3%

Tampa down 18.4%

Washington down 9.8%

THESE ARE NOT GOOD NUMBERS FOLKS!!!!

Here are the ridiculous tiny blips they are getting excited about, recall these are the 30 day change from June to July in %:

Atlanta up 2.3%

Boston up 1.2%

Charlotte up 0.6% (wow let’s take out some equity and restart the economy! uhm NOT!)

Continues after the break:

(more…)

September 29, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Housing, Labor Department, Wall St. 1 comment.

Housing: June Case Shiller Index – home prices up 1.4% month over month; down 14.8% y/y

CNBC:

The S&P/Case-Shiller composite indexes of 10 and 20 metropolitan areas both rose 1.4 percent in June from May, almost three times the 0.5 percent increases of the month before. May’s increases were the first in nearly three years.”It is an impressive turnaround. This is a huge, sudden, upward swing,” Robert Shiller, economist at the Yale School of Management, told CNBC in a live interview.

IMO year over year is the real figure to watch and that delta is slowing, finally.

The 10- and 20-city indexes have dropped 54.3 percent and 45.3 percent from their 2006 peaks, respectively.

…S&P also said its U.S. National Home Price Index recorded a 14.9 percent decline for the second quarter, compared with a 19.1 percent year-over-year drop in the first quarter…

Shawn Colvin/Veronica Mars mix courtesy of truemyth

August 25, 2009. Tags: , , , , , . Finance, Foreclosures, Wall St. Comments off.

Market Mover Tuesday: Case Shiller Housing Index: down 18.1 % y/y; insured defaults rising…

Pace of declines slowing? It would be a start on a bottom…..talk about a stretch for good news though, the rate moderated from a y/y drop of 18.7% to a y/y drop of 18.1%, a .06% improvement, nothing to write home about, pardon the pun….

CNBC:

…The index of 20 metropolitan areas dipped 0.6 percent in April from March, after a 2.2 percent decline the month before, for an 18.1 percent downturn from a year earlier.

S&P said its index of 10 metropolitan areas declined 0.6 percent in April for an 18 percent year-over-year drop, after falling 2.1 percent month on month in March.

The rate of annual decline in these measures has improved, from 18.7 percent for both indexes in March.

“While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun, it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. “We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here.”…

In other news defaults are up, and this is unemployment related defaults now on prime loans, the subprime bubble is over:

housing chart wsj

Defaults on privately insured U.S. mortgages rose in May following three months of declines, and the number brought up to date fell, providing new evidence that the nation’s housing market is still deteriorating.

The Mortgage Insurance Companies of America, a trade group, said 87,904 insured borrowers were at least 60 days late on payments in May, up 8 percent from April and up 29 percent from a year earlier. Late payments often foreshadow foreclosure.Mortgages brought up to date totaled just 52,590, down 10 percent from April and the fewest since January. But so-called insurance cures were up 29 percent from a year earlier.

Private mortgage insurance lets people buy homes with down payments of less than 20 percent, and guarantees that lenders will be repaid even if borrowers default. Insurance in force totaled $922 billion in May, the trade group said.

The industry has been tightening its standards after struggling with losses from having backed subprime and other risky mortgages, which have eaten into capital. Increasingly, mortgage providers are demanding 20 percent down payments, which could obviate the need for mortgage insurance.

In addition, while most major U.S. home loan providers adopted mortgage-modification programs in the last year to keep borrowers in their homes, many foreclosure moratoriums expired in March…

In other news PPIP is going forward and GE is getting money from it..shockah! Frakkers….

June 30, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Entertainment, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Labor Department, Music, Politics, Popular Culture, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

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