Market Mover Wednesday: Weekly jobless claims, personal income/spending and durable goods…

Update: Weekly claims dropped to 466,000, continued claims 5.423 million

Oct personal income up 0.2%, personal spending up 0.7%

Durable Goods down 0.6%

Gold just hit another record $1181 an oz


Another heavy day for data with light volume expected…


…Weekly jobless claims are expected at 8:30 a.m., along with October durable goods, personal income, and consumer spending. Consumer sentiment is released at 9:55 a.m. and new home sales are released at 10 a.m. Jobless claims could be below 500,000 for the first time in months.

Stocks finished slightly lower Tuesday, after shaking off a triple digit Dow loss. The Dow was down 17 at 10,433, and the S&P 500 was down less than a point at 1106. The worst performers were the financials…

November 25, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Housing, Labor Department, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Economy: Marty Feldstein says we may see second dip; what about that housing data?

There you go. Now Feldstein is on board with the W shaped recovery (like we under edumacated consumers who actually buy the stuff we import and produce!) . This comes weeks after Geithner and Summers were off the rez talking about the possibility of tax hikes for the middle class. Buffet (another person TOTUS liked to wave around as proof of his moderateness in the primaries) is also calling for caution calling Hey Big Spender to D.C. in editorials and is expecting the dollar to drop…

Bernanke and the Fed seem to be expecting a long flat bottom to the L shape. PIMCO is on record with 1-2% GDP growth for a generation. Now we have Feldstein and Buffet on record the spending has to stop and TOTUS still clinging to his tax promises which are written in smoke….

The only way I see to avoid the double dip is for Team TOTUS to start governing as moderates and staunch the bleeding of the red ink and the pillaging of the drivers of GROWTH (ie private capital and comfy consumers who feel safe spending)…

What about the housing data today? We had a 7+% jump in existing home sales. Break it down with Diana Olick on CNBC

U.S. Existing Home Sales Yr/Yr
$0 – $100,000 Up 38.8%
100,000 – $250,000 Up 8.7%
$250,000 – $500,000 Down 6.2%
$500,000 – $750,000 Down 8.9%
$750,000 – $1,000,000 Down 10.6%
$1,000,000 – $2,000,000 Down 23.3%
$2,000,000 + Down 32.4%
Source:  National Association of Realtors

Averages rallying on the surface data DOW up 135 to 9486; S&P up 16 to 1023 and NAS up 23 to 2012. But the drill down data is not as rosy as the topline number would appear. We have short sales, foreclosures on the very bottom end homes <100k jumping almost 40% but the mid to top end is flat to negative..WSJ:

A survey found that one in eight U.S. households with mortgages was in foreclosure or behind on its mortgage payments during the second quarter, putting added pressure on programs aimed at preventing foreclosures.

While foreclosure starts have slowed on the subprime loans that ignited the mortgage and banking crisis, loans extended to borrowers with good credit are deteriorating at a faster clip as falling home prices and mounting job losses weigh on more households.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its latest survey, released Thursday, showed that 13.2% of mortgages on homes with one to four units were at least a month overdue or in the foreclosure process in the April-to-June period, up from 12.1% in the first quarter and 9% a year earlier.

As home sales have picked up in recent months, some were expecting foreclosures and delinquencies to ease. But Jay Brinkmann, chief economist at the MBA, said foreclosures weren’t expected to peak until later in 2010 when the economy improves.

“Just because we see prices level off doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see a big reduction in foreclosures,” said Mr. Brinkmann, in part because many homeowners would still owe more than their homes were worth…

WSJ - Nick Timiraos

WSJ - Nick Timiraos

The foreclosure numbers are rising along with unemployment. This is a long shallow bottom if the anti capitalistic interventions in the markets and economy at large stop.

It is the first leg down on a ladder to Carterville if they ignore the public sentiment (we being 70% of our economy and the impetus for inventory buildup and job creation) which is expressing itself not just at townhalls but in the weak consumer sentiment and spending data….

Leave the economy alone! Leave it alone!

Sweet Charity courtesy of jwsnowden

August 21, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Film, Finance, Foreclosures, Healthcare, Housing, Immigration, Labor Department, Obama Administration, Politics, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 2 comments.

Update: El-Erian on the imminent market pullback: Market Mover Friday: Consumer Sentiment plunges, CPI flat…

Vodpod videos no longer available.

CNBC: “The stock market has gotten ahead of reality, Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC Friday.

In a continuation of recent comments, El-Erian, co-chief executive officer of the largest bond fund manager in the world, said the US has yet to see a durable and sustainable recovery.

“Stock investors are making overly optimistic assumptions,” El-Erian said. “The key stimulus has already come into the consumer and has helped in the last few months. But for the third and fourth quarters looking ahead, I am not so sure things will be as good.”

Just three weeks ago, El-Erian told CNBC that the stock market spent July on a “sugar high,” rising to levels not justified by an economy that is still limping along….”


August 14, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Obama Administration, Politics, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

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