Housing Double Dip revealed as New Sales plunge 17% m/m down 28% y/y to record low ~ Let the TBTF Games Begin!

Update at end of post

American Homeowners are Home Alone while Benny and the Feds continue to PROTECT TBTF BANKS as their ONE AND ONLY MANDATE.

New sales of single-family homes fell nearly 17% in February from a month earlier, coming in well below analysts’ estimates and at the lowest level recorded….

…February sales are down 28% from a year earlier….

And as we have been saying  til we’re blue in the face, it is now NATIONWIDE:

In the Northeast in February, new homes sales cratered, falling 57% from January, according to the joint release from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Okay you say, how about prices? What is the delta, the RATE of change? It is ACCELERATING TO THE DOWNSIDE~lowest price since December 2003~

…The median sales price of new homes sold last month was $202,100, down nearly 14% from January, representing the largest monthly decline yet….

Tiny Tim and Bankster Ben have been in full save the banks, ‘extend and pretend’ on housing mode for THREE YEARS.

And where has that gotten the REAL ECONOMY~ The Main St economy? Absolutely nowhere.

Where has that gotten the TBTF? They will still fail if they take the losses they NEED to take, but they have lots of nice bonuses and dividends (Except for BofA which is the redhaired stepchild and is allowed to wither on the vine sans dividends) and Jamie Dimon was even able to produce a $20Billion line of credit for ATT to become Ma Bell, again.

The economy on Main St will NOT RECOVER until housing is addressed in a MEANINGFUL way that allows consumers to correct their balance sheets.

You know, the way the TBTF are allowed to. The way CRE is allowed to. The way every Wall St firm is allowed to, by RESTRUCTURING THE DEBT. HOLC or real mods, pick your poison.

Or we can keep IGNORING the real problem and let the banks who MADE THE STUPID LOANS be the ONLY ONES who get off with NO LOSSES TAKEN while the US consumer continues to struggle for years under the housing morass as Ben prints to infinity and beyond like a deranged Buzz Lightyear.

To Hyperinflation and Beyond!!!

Update: Oh lookee here!! Chris Whalen says FAN FRED are hiding ANOTHER 100B in losses on their books! But TPTB and TBTF are claiming writing down homeowners principal will cost taxpayers? Bullshit. And don;t EVEN talk to me about moral hazard after the shxt the Fed is doing for the banks.

…Both investors and Congress need a lot more details about the purchases of defaulted loans by Fannie and Freddie. We need to know exactly how many dud loans have migrated back to the GSEs, what their loan loss reserve is, how much of that loan loss reserve is “covered” by the MIs and how much “capital” the MIs have against these exposures. The GSE are letting dead loans sit on their books in part to avoid recognizing the losses, an event that would drive many of the MIs into bankruptcy. If you look at how slow the process of final loss recognition by Fannie and Freddie is proceeding, then you’ll understand why the publicly disclosed loss rates reported by Fannie and Freddie have been falling.

Instead of demanding insurance payments, the GSEs are doing everything in their power to keep the MIs looking like going concerns so that they can count the MI “receivable” as a good asset. This is why the GSEs direct LTV based LLPAs to the MIs, to keep some cash flowing their way, and…

If there was a proper mark-to-market on the MIs (like all proper insurance/reinsurance businesses do), then the MIs would be massively insolvent. The GSEs would have to take another huge amount of capital from Treasury. Geithner and the GSEs are trying to avoid it, and to date are getting away with it….

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March 23, 2011. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Housing: Existing Home Sales rocket up 10%, 2.5 year high; median price down 7.1% y/y

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The Economic Eeyore in me must note that in the West, the epicenter of the bubble collapse, sales were only up 1%. But take good news where you can get it!

CNBC:

The National Association of Realtors said sales surged a record 10.1 percent month-over-month to an annual rate of 6.10 million units, the highest since February 2007, from a downwardly revised 5.54 million-unit pace in September.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected October sales to jump to a 5.70 million-unit pace from the previously reported 5.57 million units in September. Compared to October last year, home sales were up by a record 23.5 percent. U.S. stock indexes extended gains on the data, while Treasury debt prices were little changed.

“Many buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for first-time buyer credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month, and similarly robust sales may be occurring in November,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Distressed transactions accounted for 30 percent of sales last month and continued to weigh on house prices. First-time buyers made up a third of sales in October.The national median home price fell 7.1 percent from October last year, the smallest decline in over a year, to $173,100. Homes in foreclosure typically sell for 15 to 20 percent less than traditional homes….

The big news, the inventory (we are all waiting for the shadow REO to hit the market):

The inventory of existing homes for sale in October fell 3.7 percent to 3.57 million units from the previous month, NAR said. At October’s sales pace, that represented a supply of 7.0 months, the lowest in 2-1/2 years, from September’s revised 8.0 months.

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November 23, 2009. Tags: , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Market Mover: Existing Home Sales up 9.4% as Home Buyer Tax Credit nears end:prices drop 8.5% y/y to median price of $174,900…

housesforsale

This will give us a nifty GDP bump for Q3-Q4. But it is cannibalizing future sales as clunkers did. Isakson and Dodd are looking to extend this credit to ALL home buyers which would extend the GDP bump but help to collapse the US dollar IMO as our deficit continues to soar…I am still calling for a double dip…

CNBC:

Home resales rose far more than expected last month to the highest level in more than two years as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before a tax credit for first-time owners expires.The National Association of Realtors says sales rose 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in September, from a downwardly revised pace of 5.1 million in August…

Prices fell another 8.5% year over year to median of $174,900…

October 23, 2009. Tags: , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics. 1 comment.

Update: US Credit Card Defaults hit record high; Stiglitz: No job growth for at least 2 years & Existing home sales and prices drop…

Update: More happy, happy, joy joy. As we said eons ago, okay in June, lol, we could not understand why the stress test results allowed CapitalOne to not raise reserves against credit card defaults. Well guess what? That ‘bottom’ they called in July, is broken, and we are at another new record and climbing on defaults:

The U.S. credit card charge-off rate rose to a record high in August, as more Americans lost their jobs, Moody’s Investors Service said on Wednesday, in another sign consumers remain under stress.The Moody’s credit card charge-off index — which measures credit card loans that banks do not expect to be repaid — rose to 11.49 percent in August from 10.52 percent in July.

The index resumed an upward trend after declining in July for the first time in almost a year, vanishing hopes of stabilization in the industry after record high credit losses…

Good news huh?! Recall this is Joseph Nobel Prize Stiglitz, another of the SOOPERGENIUSES who supported Obama.

In other happy happy talk, existing home sales dropped (which was a SHOCK to the talking heads but not to any average American, we know you cannot buy a home without a job, hello!!) and prices fell another 12%…

And that wave of foreclosures is coming to boost inventory...

(…)Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm based in Cleveland, believes three million to four million foreclosed homes will be put up for sale in the next few years. The question is whether the flow of these homes onto the market will resemble “a fire hose or a garden hose or a drip,” she says.

Analysts who track the shadow market have focused primarily on the gap between the number of seriously delinquent loans and the number of foreclosed homes for sale by mortgage companies. A loan is considered seriously delinquent, which typically means it is headed to foreclosure, if it is 90 days or more past due.

As of July, mortgage companies hadn’t begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by LPS Applied Analytics, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn’t yet acquired the property. The figures don’t include home-equity loans and other second mortgages

Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn’t made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn’t begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren’t in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier….

Finally the economists have caught on to the OBVIOUS fact -no job no house payment- and Mark Zandi of Moody’s (the Dems fave to bring to the Hill and talk up stimulus spending) has chimed in:

The housing recovery remains weak and could take a turn for the worse if more Americans lose their jobs, analysts say.

Well no shxt Sherlocks!! Hey I have been saying this for over a year, where’s my Nobel Prize, huh??

“The market’s incredibly fragile,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys. “As long as job losses are rising, the housing market is at risk of continuing along a decline. Any recent stability would be in danger.”The unexpected drop in existing home sales for August was the latest sign of just how tentative the recent signs of recovery are.

More NO SHXT analysis:

What has helped housing in recent months, analysts say, has been the first time homebuyer tax credit of $8,000. But that is scheduled to end on November 30th and should be extended, says Walter Maloney, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors.”The tax credit has really been a catalyst,” Walter Maloney says. “We’ve seen a sustained gain in sales in recent months because of it. We need to extend it for all home buyers–and even to commercial real estate.”

Again, MiM has been saying this FOR AGES! That the home buyer tax credit that ends in November, and Clunkers would give 3Q GDP boost and then a drop off when consumers who still dont have work, continue to well NOT SPEND WHAT THEY DONT HAVE. Gee maybe that’s why the government doesn’t undertand it, becuase they DO SPEND WHAT THEY DONT HAVE!

Well gee now that they are on board with the REALITIES we have been talking about on Main St for months now, what do they plan to do to fix it? Give people more government money of course!

Wisconsin School of Business professors produced a recommendation based on their recent study to the Obama administration regarding the grave condition of foreclosures across America…

Continues after the break:

(more…)

September 24, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 3 comments.

Economy: Marty Feldstein says we may see second dip; what about that housing data?

There you go. Now Feldstein is on board with the W shaped recovery (like we under edumacated consumers who actually buy the stuff we import and produce!) . This comes weeks after Geithner and Summers were off the rez talking about the possibility of tax hikes for the middle class. Buffet (another person TOTUS liked to wave around as proof of his moderateness in the primaries) is also calling for caution calling Hey Big Spender to D.C. in editorials and is expecting the dollar to drop…

Bernanke and the Fed seem to be expecting a long flat bottom to the L shape. PIMCO is on record with 1-2% GDP growth for a generation. Now we have Feldstein and Buffet on record the spending has to stop and TOTUS still clinging to his tax promises which are written in smoke….

The only way I see to avoid the double dip is for Team TOTUS to start governing as moderates and staunch the bleeding of the red ink and the pillaging of the drivers of GROWTH (ie private capital and comfy consumers who feel safe spending)…

What about the housing data today? We had a 7+% jump in existing home sales. Break it down with Diana Olick on CNBC

U.S. Existing Home Sales Yr/Yr
$0 – $100,000 Up 38.8%
100,000 – $250,000 Up 8.7%
$250,000 – $500,000 Down 6.2%
$500,000 – $750,000 Down 8.9%
$750,000 – $1,000,000 Down 10.6%
$1,000,000 – $2,000,000 Down 23.3%
$2,000,000 + Down 32.4%
Source:  National Association of Realtors

Averages rallying on the surface data DOW up 135 to 9486; S&P up 16 to 1023 and NAS up 23 to 2012. But the drill down data is not as rosy as the topline number would appear. We have short sales, foreclosures on the very bottom end homes <100k jumping almost 40% but the mid to top end is flat to negative..WSJ:

A survey found that one in eight U.S. households with mortgages was in foreclosure or behind on its mortgage payments during the second quarter, putting added pressure on programs aimed at preventing foreclosures.

While foreclosure starts have slowed on the subprime loans that ignited the mortgage and banking crisis, loans extended to borrowers with good credit are deteriorating at a faster clip as falling home prices and mounting job losses weigh on more households.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its latest survey, released Thursday, showed that 13.2% of mortgages on homes with one to four units were at least a month overdue or in the foreclosure process in the April-to-June period, up from 12.1% in the first quarter and 9% a year earlier.

As home sales have picked up in recent months, some were expecting foreclosures and delinquencies to ease. But Jay Brinkmann, chief economist at the MBA, said foreclosures weren’t expected to peak until later in 2010 when the economy improves.

“Just because we see prices level off doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see a big reduction in foreclosures,” said Mr. Brinkmann, in part because many homeowners would still owe more than their homes were worth…

WSJ - Nick Timiraos

WSJ - Nick Timiraos

The foreclosure numbers are rising along with unemployment. This is a long shallow bottom if the anti capitalistic interventions in the markets and economy at large stop.

It is the first leg down on a ladder to Carterville if they ignore the public sentiment (we being 70% of our economy and the impetus for inventory buildup and job creation) which is expressing itself not just at townhalls but in the weak consumer sentiment and spending data….

Leave the economy alone! Leave it alone!

Sweet Charity courtesy of jwsnowden

August 21, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Film, Finance, Foreclosures, Healthcare, Housing, Immigration, Labor Department, Obama Administration, Politics, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 2 comments.

Market Mover Thursday: Existing Home Sales Rise, Prices Fall 15.4% y/y…

And the beat(ing) homeowners are taking goes on….the markets are up 175 on the DOW, IMO missing the point these are short sales and foreclosures, the banks are holding shadow inventory and unemployment is still climbing…as long as homeowners continue to see their home values drop and jobless rates rise we will not spend….

housinginyourhands

WSJ:

Existing-home sales rose again in June from the previous month, but prices are still down sharply compared with last year. Home resales rose more than expected, by 3.6%, to a 4.89 million annual rate from a revised 4.72 million in May, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.The NAR originally reported May sales up 2.4% to 4.77 million. Wall Street expected a sales rate of 4.85 million sales rate for previously owned homes.

Foreclosures and short sales reflect 31% of sales in June. Distressed property sales have pushed prices lower, year over year. The median price for an existing home last month was $181,800, a 15.4% decrease from June 2008.

The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 5.42% in June from 4.86% in May, Freddie Mac data show. Tighter credit and rising unemployment are also reducing sales.

Previously owned home sales, year-over-year, were down 0.2% from the pace in June 2008, Thursday report said.

Weak demand has kept inventories of unsold homes high. Inventories of previously owned homes fell 0.7% at the end of June to 3.82 million available for sale. That represented a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, compared to 9.8 in May. Excess supply is depressing prices….

July 23, 2009. Tags: , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Labor Department, Politics, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Market Mover Tuesday: Housing Data and the Treasury Auctions begin….

The Mortgage Bankers Association slashed their estimates yesterday, more on that later….for the next two days, we are also waiting for language after the Fed meeting wraps up to see the exit strategy….

This morning we get sales data:

WSJ:

…At 10 a.m., the National Association of Realtors will report on May sales of existing homes and the Federal Housing Finance Agency will release home-price data for April.

The Treasury Department will auction $60 billion in two-year notes Tuesday. Ahead of the sale, Treasurys were falling, with the two-year note sliding 3/32 to yield 1.174%, and the 10-year note sliding 10/32 to yield 3.722%….

June 23, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Housing, Music, Wall St. Comments off.

HUD’s Housing Plan – 8k tax credit now available upfront at closing…CNBC.com

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May 29, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Taxes, Uncategorized. Comments off.

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