WOW! Must See TV: Congressional JEC panel ripping Geithner apart: Rep Brady (R-TX) first to ask him to resign: MiM starts Obama economic team “shake-up” watch…

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If you look at UE Tim, the US is substantially WORSE off than it was when Obama took office to answer Timmehs whine….In fact someone should tell Tim, taking him at his word that he believes all measures, any measure of economic activity shows things are better since January, the measure of foreclosures and delinquencies has also more than doubled since Obama ‘took charge’:

Update: 12:10pm EST: uh oh. Kudlow says and Steve Liesman confirms, that Geithner is the most fiscally conservative member of Obamas economic advisers.  No wonder we are in a world of hurt! CNBC just ran the Brady Timmeh back n forth so it should come up in a video post shortly. will get it up right away.

Vodpod videos no longer available.

Update: 11:!5am OMG OMG Geithner just threw Seniors unda da bus!! He acknowledges to Brownback that yes the CBO score only works if Congress actually DOES the Medicare cuts and he insists they must and should and will DO THE CUTS. He says the costs have to be reduced, Brownback is saying but why cant we save Medicare? Good grief Geithner is a disaster, you aren’t supposed to tell Seniors they are getting thrown under there Timmeh, Obama will be displeased. Good ad for the GOP though!

WOW!! Excellent!!!! Live feed from CNBC here

I am starting Geithner Fired/Resigns Watch now, there will fer shure be some sort of ‘ Obama economic team shake-up’ to placate the rumblings as they get ready to ask for MORE STIMULUS…They can’t get away with it under Geithner IMO, looks like he is marked as sacrificial lamb, but the Progressives will be no happier with Larry Summers, lol….

By dequalss

Typos abound, getting ready while I do this- TImmeh is red and ranting and blaming Bush and Rep Brady made him acknowledge yes he was head of NY Fed when this collapse happened, and they are cross talking, Brady says the public has lost all confidence in Geithner and he reflects badly on his President, he says at some point Geithner has to take responsibility…ohhh excellent!!

Update: 11:04am EST: Rep. Burgess (R-TX) just said “I don;t think you should quit, you shouldn’t have been hired”. Is that a bus engine I hear idling??? This the Joint Economic Committee and is made up of both Senators and House members, double the fun!! Now Sen Brownback is going off about the health care plan and the Yuan peg…

(FD-MiM is a former AIG employee and shareholder and we have followed Geithner’s handling of the crisis as NY Fed-head closely for two years now, our posts on Geithner, Hank Paulson and AIG are legion. Our previous posts on Geithner and the troubled CITI bailout here and  here and here and here and here and even here ….)

Recall Sens DeMint and Isakson called on Geithner to resign last March. As did several members of the House.

This is in keeping with the report in TheHill this morning:

A Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) member said there’s “growing consensus” among liberals that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner should step down.

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) said Wednesday that he and other liberal House members are becoming increasingly tired of Obama administration economic policies that they say are too focused on maintaining the stability of Wall Street firms and largely ignore “Main Street.”“A growing consensus in the caucus [believe that Geithner should be removed],” DeFazio said on MSNBC this evening, adding that some lawmakers are “considering questions regarding him and other economic advisers.”

DeFazio said that lawmakers have not yet drafted a plan to remove Geithner. The lawmaker also took aim at top Obama economic adviser Larry Summers for furthering many of the same policies favored by Geithner.

“We need a new economic team,” said DeFazio…..

Hey man, live by the populist pitchforks, die by the populist pitchforks. Hard to put that class war genie back into the bottle and it was a HUGE mistake to embolden the populist rhetoric flame throwers in the House…

This drum beat is getting louder. Dodd thinks Geithner is a drag on his polling, lol, and Simmons, Dodd’s GOP opponent called for Geithner’s resignation already:

A former House Republican running for the Senate in Connecticut is calling for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to be replaced over his handling of AIG’s bailout.

GOP candidate Rob Simmons reacted to a report by Neil Barofsky, the inspector general of the $700 billion bailout program, known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Barofsky’s report criticized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which Geithner led during the bailout, for a series of missteps that Barofsky said ended up requiring the government to provide additional support to AIG.

“The report issued yesterday by the inspector general for the TARP program is a deeply troubling account of Secretary Geithner’s failed management of the AIG bailout in which he cost taxpayers $13 billion in unnecessary new debt,” said Simmons, who appears to be the only candidate or office-holder to call for Geithner’s replacement in response to the report.The federal government committed more than $180 billion to AIG, which was crippled by poor investments and trades in credit default swaps, a financial derivative.

Simmons also attacked his opponent, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), in the statement calling on Geithner to be replaced.

“The cozy relationships between the bailed-out financial companies and powerful politicians like Tim Geithner and Chris Dodd are exactly why Americans have lost trust in Washington, D.C., and why we need new leadership with the skills and integrity to clean up their mess and get our economy back on track.”…

More great housing news:

US mortgage delinquency rates and the percentage of loans that entered the foreclosure process jumped in the third quarter, with both reaching record highs, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Thursday.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started rose to 1.42 percent in the third quarter, an all-time high, up from 1.36 percent in the second quarter and 1.07 percent in the third quarter of 2008.

…The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.64 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2009, up 40 basis points from 9.24 percent in the second quarter and up 265 basis points from 6.99 percent one year ago, the MBA said in its National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate broke the record set last quarter. The records are based on MBA data dating back to 1972.

The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.47 percent, an increase of 17 basis points from 4.30 percent the second quarter of 2009 and 150 basis points from 2.97 percent one year ago.

The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure and at least one payment past due was 14.41 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey….

November 19, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . CITI, citigroup, Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Meredith Whitney on the new normal & Fed exit from MBS purchases, its impact on banks, housing…

MEREDITH WHITNEY

Meredith Whitney - Photo: Bloomberg News

Update 2: Bloomberg on Whitney’s call:

The S&P 500 Financials Index slumped 1.5 percent, the most among 10 industries, after the House vote and as analyst Meredith Whitney said the biggest U.S. banks may face declining values on home-loan bonds with government backing as the Fed prepares to end its $1.25 trillion purchase program.

Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo increased holdings of so-called agency mortgage-backed securities by 44 percent from the third quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009, Whitney said in a note yesterday to investors. Those increases came as the Fed began buying securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae in an attempt to keep mortgage rates low and spur housing demand, she wrote.

JPMorgan fell 1.2 percent to $42.21, while Wells Fargo slid 3.1 percent to $26.82 and Citigroup lost 1.7 percent to $3.97.

Update: Ms Whitney wrote an excellent op ed in the WSJ last month outlining what we can expect in the financial sector and consumer going forward. Read it here.  ‘Main Street represents the foundation of this country. Reviving it should take priority over any regulatory reform or systemic overhaul.’

Meredith Whitney is IMO the best bank analyst on the street bar none.

She put out two notes to clients last night, ABSOLUTE MUST READS:

1) Ain’t Gonna Happen, where she argues that “normalized” earnings for banks is a fallacy, that it’s more likely we will see protracted consumer deleveraging, fewer consumers who qualify for credit, and dramatic regulatory change, which will negatively impact earnings for a protracted period, and

2) The Great Exit: The Biggest Market & Bank Risk Over the Next Four Months, a long note on the importance of the Fed’s agency MBS purchase program, where she argues that uncertainty over when the program will end (now scheduled for end of Q1 2010), and who the substitute buyer for the Fed will be, means that “prices will go down meaningfully and rates will go up meaningfully.” She argues that it is possible the mortgage market will again shrink notably: “We believe this represents one of the larger risks to the banks and overall market over the next several months.”

November 4, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Politics, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Update: DOW closes down 203-ISM well below expectations, 30 yr bond hits 4.00%, pending home sales rocket -Market Mover Thursday: Weekly Jobless claims rise..

Update: 4:54 pm EST: DOW closes down 203 to 9509.28; S & P down 27.23 to 1029.85, NAS down 64.94 to 2057.48

grizzly1

Update 1:22pm EST:

DOW now down 176.85 to 9535.43

S & P off 23.29 to 1033.79

NAS down 58.05 to 2066.37

30 yr now 3.95%!

10 yr 3.19%

Update: ISM well below expectations 52.6, that is a DROP from August reading of 52.9, thus delta going wrong way…DOW now down 82 to 9630…

but pending home sales JUMP (IMO off the pending END to the homebuyer tax credit, ends Nov 30th) markets ricocheting off the data…

Pending Home Sales rocket, NAR says it is due to paperwork backlogs wha?
Okay NAR says pending home sales UP but NOT NECESSARILY CLOSING, ahh funding and appraisal disputes abound, NAR says sales up on short sales pending for ‘complex appraisal rules’.:

up 16% in the West
up 8.2% in the NorthEast
up 3.1% in Midwest
up 0.8% in the South

wall_st_bear_small‘unexpectedly’ (Only to the Hopium Smokin’ KoolAid Drinkin’ Pundits is this ‘unexpected’)

This is the weekly jobs number, the big one, monthly August jobs data will be released tomorrow.

Breaking on CNBC-

Weekly jobless claims (week ending 09/26) rise 17,000 to 551,000

Personal spending up 0.3%– 1.3% all Clunkers

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally adjusted 551,000 in the week ending Sept. 26 from a revised 534,000 in the previous week. Analysts polled by\ Reuters were expecting claims of 530,000, which would have been unchanged from the previously reported figure…

..Government data on Wednesday showed spending dropped at a 0.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter after rising 0.6 percent in the January-March period…

Jim Rogers joins MiM’s bandwagon in a call we are  ‘facing retro 70s inflation’

The US faces high inflation because of the weak dollar and the Federal Reserve’s policy of printing money to counter the effects of the crisis, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC Thursday. Price rises in the US are already steeper than the inflation rate reported by the government, Rogers added.”There’s no question the US is vulnerable to hyperinflation down the road or certainly the inflation we saw in the 1970s, I would expect that to come back in the foreseeable future, certainly in the next few years,” he said.


“The true inflation rate in America? It’s certainly at least 6 or 7 percent, the US government lies about it, as you know, everybody who shops knows that prices are up, everybody except the US government, and I wish we knew where they shopped so we can shop there too and get good prices.”

Rogers repeated his view that the Fed’s quantitative easing program is “debasing the currency” and said he was “extremely worried” about the fate of the dollar over the long term…..

Waiting for September ISM release..

October 1, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Labor Department, Obama Administration, Politics, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Video Update: Market Movers this week: Case Shiller Index-still declining but off lows, monthly jobs report Friday…

Update 2: More on that shadow inventory courtesy of Smart Money:

(…)the outlook for housing by Amherst Securities Group, whose stuff we’ve quoted before and whose analysis is invariably first-rate. The report, dated last Wednesday, festooned with gory detail, focuses on the swollen overhang, the so-called shadow inventory, that has grown inexorably in the wake of the tsunami of default and foreclosure.

Amherst estimates this massive overhang at seven million units. That’s the equivalent of 135% of a full year’s existing-home sales and chillingly greater than the 1.27 million units that made up the overhang in early 2005, when the housing bubble had just begun its dizzying and more than a little lunatic ascent.

…Three factors are cited by Amherst as the chief culprits in this sorry narrative. The first is the rapidity with which what it describes as the nonperforming bucket (where the mortgages are at least 60 days delinquent) is filling. The second is the strikingly low “cure rate” on delinquent loans. In 2005, homeowners retrieved 66% of their loans delinquent 60 days or longer. That percentage shriveled to a paltry 5% in the second quarter of ’09.

And, finally, bloating the inventory overhang is the lengthening time between delinquency and liquidation. Of the loans in the delinquent pipeline in August 2009, 9% have not made a payment in over 24 months, compared with 4% in 2008. The reasons cited by Amherst for this stretching out include moratoriums on foreclosures and the slow pace of the judicial process in states where a judge’s O.K. is required for foreclosure...GO READ THE WHOLE EXCELLENT PIECE!

wall-street21

UPDATE: More on the Case Shiller Home Price Index:

  • 10 & 20 city composites are up 3.6% from their lows.

These guys are hyping minimal improvement here, AGAIN. SHOCKAH! They are looking at month-to-month which is not the way to gauge, you need y/y in RE!

Here comes David Blitzer to break it out- he sees ‘clear signs it is turning up’, it ‘will be slow’ still ‘clear risk there may be backsliding at some point but it definitely looks encouraging’ Erin Burnette is ‘clinging’ to the ALMOST FLAT Y/Y for Dallas and Denver HA! Blitzer notes they include foreclosure sales and anecdotal data is foreclosures are out there, and he acknowledges the resets in 2010 are coming, and HA he finally notes the tax credit is ending in November, ya!

Here is the REAL DATA YEAR OVER YEAR from the same report – 1 YEAR CHANGE:

Dallas down 1.6%

Denver down 2.9%

Detroit down 24.6%

Las Vegas down 31.4%

L.A. down 14.9%

Miami down 21.2%

Minneapolis down 17.3%

New York down 10.3%

Phoenix down 28.5% (ouch!)

Portland down 13.9%

San Diego down 12.3%

San Francisco down 17.9%

Seattle down 15.3%

Tampa down 18.4%

Washington down 9.8%

THESE ARE NOT GOOD NUMBERS FOLKS!!!!

Here are the ridiculous tiny blips they are getting excited about, recall these are the 30 day change from June to July in %:

Atlanta up 2.3%

Boston up 1.2%

Charlotte up 0.6% (wow let’s take out some equity and restart the economy! uhm NOT!)

Continues after the break:

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September 29, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Housing, Labor Department, Wall St. 1 comment.

Update: US Credit Card Defaults hit record high; Stiglitz: No job growth for at least 2 years & Existing home sales and prices drop…

Update: More happy, happy, joy joy. As we said eons ago, okay in June, lol, we could not understand why the stress test results allowed CapitalOne to not raise reserves against credit card defaults. Well guess what? That ‘bottom’ they called in July, is broken, and we are at another new record and climbing on defaults:

The U.S. credit card charge-off rate rose to a record high in August, as more Americans lost their jobs, Moody’s Investors Service said on Wednesday, in another sign consumers remain under stress.The Moody’s credit card charge-off index — which measures credit card loans that banks do not expect to be repaid — rose to 11.49 percent in August from 10.52 percent in July.

The index resumed an upward trend after declining in July for the first time in almost a year, vanishing hopes of stabilization in the industry after record high credit losses…

Good news huh?! Recall this is Joseph Nobel Prize Stiglitz, another of the SOOPERGENIUSES who supported Obama.

In other happy happy talk, existing home sales dropped (which was a SHOCK to the talking heads but not to any average American, we know you cannot buy a home without a job, hello!!) and prices fell another 12%…

And that wave of foreclosures is coming to boost inventory...

(…)Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm based in Cleveland, believes three million to four million foreclosed homes will be put up for sale in the next few years. The question is whether the flow of these homes onto the market will resemble “a fire hose or a garden hose or a drip,” she says.

Analysts who track the shadow market have focused primarily on the gap between the number of seriously delinquent loans and the number of foreclosed homes for sale by mortgage companies. A loan is considered seriously delinquent, which typically means it is headed to foreclosure, if it is 90 days or more past due.

As of July, mortgage companies hadn’t begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by LPS Applied Analytics, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn’t yet acquired the property. The figures don’t include home-equity loans and other second mortgages

Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn’t made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn’t begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren’t in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier….

Finally the economists have caught on to the OBVIOUS fact -no job no house payment- and Mark Zandi of Moody’s (the Dems fave to bring to the Hill and talk up stimulus spending) has chimed in:

The housing recovery remains weak and could take a turn for the worse if more Americans lose their jobs, analysts say.

Well no shxt Sherlocks!! Hey I have been saying this for over a year, where’s my Nobel Prize, huh??

“The market’s incredibly fragile,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys. “As long as job losses are rising, the housing market is at risk of continuing along a decline. Any recent stability would be in danger.”The unexpected drop in existing home sales for August was the latest sign of just how tentative the recent signs of recovery are.

More NO SHXT analysis:

What has helped housing in recent months, analysts say, has been the first time homebuyer tax credit of $8,000. But that is scheduled to end on November 30th and should be extended, says Walter Maloney, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors.”The tax credit has really been a catalyst,” Walter Maloney says. “We’ve seen a sustained gain in sales in recent months because of it. We need to extend it for all home buyers–and even to commercial real estate.”

Again, MiM has been saying this FOR AGES! That the home buyer tax credit that ends in November, and Clunkers would give 3Q GDP boost and then a drop off when consumers who still dont have work, continue to well NOT SPEND WHAT THEY DONT HAVE. Gee maybe that’s why the government doesn’t undertand it, becuase they DO SPEND WHAT THEY DONT HAVE!

Well gee now that they are on board with the REALITIES we have been talking about on Main St for months now, what do they plan to do to fix it? Give people more government money of course!

Wisconsin School of Business professors produced a recommendation based on their recent study to the Obama administration regarding the grave condition of foreclosures across America…

Continues after the break:

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September 24, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 3 comments.

Housing: Making Home Affordable mortgage modification plan poll…

Aloha. Please take a second to click the poll below. A few emails have come in requesting an in-depth drilldown of details and expanded coverage of the Making Home Affordable Modification program and I have spent weeks researching for my own interests but before I dive in to more posts on the subject I want to get an idea of how many people want/need the additional info. Gracias.

September 10, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing. 2 comments.

Housing: June Case Shiller Index – home prices up 1.4% month over month; down 14.8% y/y

CNBC:

The S&P/Case-Shiller composite indexes of 10 and 20 metropolitan areas both rose 1.4 percent in June from May, almost three times the 0.5 percent increases of the month before. May’s increases were the first in nearly three years.”It is an impressive turnaround. This is a huge, sudden, upward swing,” Robert Shiller, economist at the Yale School of Management, told CNBC in a live interview.

IMO year over year is the real figure to watch and that delta is slowing, finally.

The 10- and 20-city indexes have dropped 54.3 percent and 45.3 percent from their 2006 peaks, respectively.

…S&P also said its U.S. National Home Price Index recorded a 14.9 percent decline for the second quarter, compared with a 19.1 percent year-over-year drop in the first quarter…

Shawn Colvin/Veronica Mars mix courtesy of truemyth

August 25, 2009. Tags: , , , , , . Finance, Foreclosures, Wall St. Comments off.

Update: Market Mover Tuesday: Consumer Confidence drops; Case Shiller Index: home prices down 17% y/y; up .04% m/m, first increase in 3 years — CNBC.com

Update: Timmeh tells China we will shrink our budget deficit!! BWAAAAHAA FRAKKIN HAAAAA!!! Suuuuuure we will…

Vodpod videos no longer available.

Geithner, Donovan (HUD) are meeting with the top 25 mortgage servicers in the WH today, let’s hope we get something meaningful from it….if they simply correct the new appraisal code we can get some movement on refis and purchases and mods..

CNBC:

S&P said its index of 10 metropolitan areas rose 0.4 percent in May after a 0.7 percent drop in April, for an 16.8 percent year-over-year drop.

“To put it in perspective, this is the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. “This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing”. The 10 and 20-city indexes reported positive returns for the first time since summer of 2006.

Sales of new homes jumped 11 percent in June, the biggest monthly gain in eight years, the Commerce Department said on Monday, … Existing home sales rose for the third straight month in June, the National Association of Realtors said last week, surpassing forecasts and feeding optimism about the beleaguered housing sector.

Still, caution is warranted as long as the U.S. unemployment rate keeps rising, economists advised. That rate is at its highest in nearly 26 years and is headed to double-digit levels. Signs of stability are far more likely than prospects for near-term recovery in housing, many economists agree. For a rebound, consumer confidence needs to improve, foreclosures need to start falling from their record pace and potential buyers need to have a sense that it won’t be even cheaper to purchase if they keep waiting.

On that note, Consumer Confidence FELL again, see here- The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes slid to 46.6 in July from 49.3 in June.

More after the break:

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July 28, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, TARP, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 2 comments.

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