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Deceleration in 18 of 20 cities in the MSAS Annual Growth Rate
In October only 4 cities rose, LA, San Diego, SF & D.C. saw gains in house prices
-6 cities hit all new lows since the collapse began in 2006
CR breaks out the data reflecting previosuly strong housing markets now succumbing to the collapse:
…six markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices started to fall in 2006 and 2007…
Blitzer says the double dip is ‘almost here’ (from here in Phoenix I can tell you it has been here for a while, TPTB have just been hoping and praying it would ‘go away’ all by itself, NOT GONNA HAPPEN.
The US economy and the US consumer, and therefore, the global economy, which is dependent upon the US consumer, WILL NOT RECOVER until they FIX HOUSING. DO HOLC.
ONLY TOTAL SHILLS ARE STILL YAMMERING THAT THIS IS A BLIP AND HOUSING WILL FIND IT’S ‘TRUE BOTTOM’, THE SUPPLY IS 2 YRS AND GROWING WITH THE STRUCTURAL UE ISSUE, IT WILL JUST KEEP
Obama and Geithner have left the BANKS in charge of this, the GSEs and the TBTF keep shuffling paper back and forth for buybacks and assorted BS. GET REAL, THE TAXPAYERS ARE ON THE HOOK FOR ALL OF IT AND WE ALL KNOW IT, JUST BITE THE BULLET AND DO THE DAMNED WRITE DOWNS.
The TBTF seem to be incapable of doing what NEEDS to be done to allow the economy to recover, the CONSUMER needs to be deleveraged from their massive housing debt. JUST DO IT.
..The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 1.0 percent in October from September on a seasonally adjusted basis, a much steeper drop than the 0.6 percent fall expected by economists….
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*Preccccious* up an astounding $22.90 right now to ANOTHER record of $1270.00.
It’s been a while, but you know what time it is…
We all know QE2 is coming. If housing takes another 20% hit, which it will, the TBTF are insolvent, again. (IMO :0>) Especially Wells and BofA who have all those HELOCS that are worthless if those homes go into foreclosure.
… JPMorgan Chase analysts lowered expectations of housing recovery in the next four years. Jon Daurio, chief executive at the distressed loan purchaser Kondaur Captial, warned that home prices could fall another 20% as well….
…Freddie Mac expects 4 million new and existing home sales in the third quarter, a possible 20.7% decline from last year and 23% drop from the previous quarter….
FD- We are BofA shareholders (NOT by choice, sadly we are holding the former Merrill shares, mom is very conservative and leery of letting them go). We have many, many posts here on the BofA/Merrill merger.
So, we should be seeing QE2, an ‘all new!’ HAMP or some sort, hopefully the MorganStanley 1 pg refi for CURRENT mortgage payors is in there someplace, nice to TRY TO PRETEND to avoid moral hazard once in a while boyz…
Also consider, we all HOPE and PRAY and WORK for a GOP sweep of House and Senate in less trhan 60 days (yay!), and this will put the brakes on Obamanomics to a large extent, BUT it will also stop fiscal stimulus from the Critters leaving Gentle Ben and his fear of Turning Japanese to step in. This in addition to Obama’s EXPORT plan, which I think is sadly misplaced has the USDollar tanking and GOLD rising as a result.
Another wild card is Chuckie Cheese Schumer, post election axx kicking, trying to grab some good vibes by launching a trade war with China which UNIONS want since Summers and Timmeh cannot get any results from our largest trading partner on the yuan peg.-again GOLD as safe haven/falling USD/helicopter Ben shelter as USD falls…
Anywho the precious knows what is coming and is ready for hit. This outs even sister Silver’s awesome performance in the shade.
So is QE2, (the quantitative easing not the ship), on the way or is Ben blowing sunshine and/or smoke up our axxes again?
From Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: Challenges for the Economy and State Governments
On the economy:
While the support to economic activity from stimulative fiscal policies and firms’ restocking of their inventories will diminish over time, rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth. In particular, in the household sector, growth in real consumer spending seems likely to pick up in coming quarters from its recent modest pace, supported by gains in income and improving credit conditions. In the business sector, investment in equipment and software has been increasing rapidly, in part as a result of the deferral of capital outlays during the downturn and the need of many businesses to replace aging equipment….
UHHH come again? Exsqueeze me? Increased consumer INCOME???? consumer spending?? Have you SEEN the savings rate and the PCE?
Memo to Ben: Wishin’ and hopin’ and thinkin’ and prayin’ is NOT an economic strategy! Give us Growth or tell the SOOPERGENIUSES in the WH to get the hell out of the way!
Ben continues~(…) To be sure, notable restraints on the recovery persist. The housing market has remained weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and new construction. Similarly, poor economic fundamentals and tight credit are holding back investment in nonresidential structures, such as office buildings, hotels, and shopping malls.
Importantly, the slow recovery in the labor market and the attendant uncertainty about job prospects are weighing on household confidence and spending. After two years of job losses, private payrolls expanded at an average of about 100,000 per month during the first half of this year, an improvement but still a pace insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate materially. In all likelihood, significant time will be required to restore the nearly 8-1/2 million jobs that were lost over 2008 and 2009. Moreover, nearly half of the unemployed have been out of work for longer than six months….
Why yes!!!, that pesky LACK OF FRAKKIN JOBS is holding us back, just a WEE bit, mighty white of Ben to notice, pardon the pun, my days in the Bronx…
Let’s hope QE2 the MS way is coming (see excerpts and linky below), BTW guess who suggested this 1 pg refi for all??? JOHN MCCAIN IN 2008. yep.
The ONLY WAY IN HELL Ben’s forecast for ‘increased consumer spending and income!!!’ will materialize is if plans are in the works or about to be to launch the MS QE2 plan in which all Americans paying on time get an ‘instant 1 pg refi’ drop in their mortgages to market rates (which, following another buying binge by Fed would be 2.99% let’s say) in CONJUNCTION with cutting principle on the defaultees (this way the foreclosures will stop and the prices will stop dropping in housing) with the new rates for all! the larger group who pay on time wont be so pixxed since they get theirs too…
From the MS PDF-If it were possible to inject a significant amount of stimulus into the US household sector, and this stimulus had zero impact on the budget deficit, did not require an exit strategy, did not distort the markets, and took effect almost immediately, wouldn’t it seem like a slam dunk?
Such an option actually exists in the form of a change to
mortgage refinancing requirements. The Fed and
market forces have pushed mortgage rates to historic
lows, yet many homeowners are unable to take
advantage because they are blocked from refinancing.
This problem could be addressed if the Government
merely recognized its existing guarantee on the principal
value of a large part of the mortgage market – the
mortgages that are backed by Fannie, Freddie and
Ginnie – and acted to streamline the refi process.
There are 37 million mortgages outstanding whose
principal value is backed by the Federal government.
When these homeowners apply for a refinancing, the
application is subject to a standard underwriting process
that involves an LTV test (requiring a property appraisal),
an analysis of the borrower’s FICO score, and income
We estimate a potential average rate reduction of 125 bp on 50% of the outstanding volume of agency-backed mortgages. In the aggregate, the savings amounts to $46 billion per year. That’s more than the cost of the latest extension of unemployment benefits and more than taxpayers saved under the Make Work Pay tax
credits in the 2009 fiscal stimulus legislation.
The bottom line is that market conditions have created a
potential costless windfall that is not being used. There
is no need for a case-by-case analysis of a borrower’s
credit quality when the principal value of the mortgage is
already backed by the government.
…How Many Borrowers Could Be Impacted?
As seen in Exhibit 3, roughly half of all US households have a
mortgage. Of these 55 million households, 37 million have
mortgages whose principal value is already guaranteed by the
Federal government. Yet, when these homeowners apply for a
refinancing, the application is subject to a standard
underwriting process that involves an LTV test (requiring a
property appraisal), an analysis of the borrower’s FICO score,
and income verification. Obviously, the drop in home prices
during the past few years means that many borrowers will notmeet the LTV requirement – especially since there has been a significant tightening in the appraisal process according to press reports. Indeed, our housing analyst Oliver Chang estimates that more than one-third of all agency-backed mortgages outstanding now have an LTV above 80% (see Exhibit 2). Looking at the principal value of these mortgages, the proportion is even greater (a little above 40% of the total) because an outsized share are located in California, where property values are higher than the national average. There are probably an additional 10% or so of borrowers who don’t qualify for refinancing because of job loss or a low FICO score.
Thus, we believe that perhaps 50% of the outstanding principal value of agency mortgages may not be refi-able at present. As seen in Exhibit 4, this estimate is broadly consistent with actual versus predicted prepay9(ment speeds that currently prevail in the mortgage market. (go read the entire paper and how they propose this be addressed, seems a win/win to me)
but if they do not plan to do this then he is either totally disconnected or full of shxt and lying to us, neither is good…
And Shaun Donovan at HUD was touting the home buyer tax credit as a success and saying housing STABLIZED! AS IF!What flavor would you like with your double-dip? WSJ has it. Hang on Sloopy!
More on the ‘wonderful’ homebuyer tax credit, it was given to inmates serving LIFE sentences, good grief.
Nearly 1,300 prison inmates wrongly received more than $9 million in tax credits for homebuyers despite being locked up when they claimed they bought a home, a government investigator reported Wednesday
The investigator said 241 of the inmates were serving life sentences….
The big number is tomorrow, the drop in new home sales, post dopey homebuyer tax credit which pulled 2 million purchases forward, that’s 2 million less first time homebuyers to move on new housing in the months ahead…
…The National Association of Realtors said sales fell 2.2 percent month over month to an annual rate of 5.66 million units from an upwardly revised 5.79 million-unit pace in April.
Analysts polled by Reuters expected May sales to rise 5.5 percent to a 6.12 million-unit pace from the previously reported 5.77 million units in April….
This Congress is killing the middle class.
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…Whitney also said financial regulation reform and policy-making that is not friendly to the middle class will hurt growth.
“The populist incumbents argue that we’ve got to get money to redistribute wealth,” she said. “This squeezes the middle class further down the food chain. The unintended consequences of this are maddening.”..
Meanwhile back in DC our HUD secretary is either deluded or spinning like a top:
…”There is no question that today’s housing market is in significantly better shape than anyone predicted 18 months ago,” he told reporters, adding, “Seventeen months after President Obama took office our housing market is stabilizing.”
To support the claim, the HUD chief released a scorecard on the housing market that showed after 30 straight months of decline, home prices have leveled off and are expected to begin adjusting upward.
It also showed that since April 2009, 2.8 million homeowners have received restructured mortgages through Obama’s loan modification programs, and more than 2.5 million families used the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit to purchase a home. The credit was a part of the first stimulus bill Obama signed into law shortly after taking office….
BWAAAAHAA!!! ROTFLMAO!!!!! HAMP and the Tax Credit worked he says!! BWAAAAHAAFRAKKINHAAAA!~!!! ZOMG! Ahh man they really slay me.