Update: Market Roundup: House vote on Financial Regulatory Reform Bill today, GE gets an exemption, Geithner wants to exempt TARP 2 from restrictions and Geithner pushing BofA and CITI to payback TARP over objections of FDIC…

Update 2: It’s up on the newslinkys now:

Conyers/Turner/Lofgren/Marshall/Waters/Cohen/Miller (NC)/ Delahunt/Nadler/Fudge Amendment #201 (Defeated 241-188)Revised: Would allow bankruptcy courts to extend repayment periods, reduce excessive interest rates and fees, and adjust the principal balance of the mortgage to a home’s fair market value as necessary to prevent foreclosure and revised to allow the VA, FHA, and RHS to take steps to facilitate mortgage modifications.  The amendment is substantively identical to title I, subtitle A and sections 121-123 of subtitle B of H.R. 1106 Helping Families Save Their Homes Act of 2009), which passed the House on March 5, 2009. (See related story)

Update: 1:25 pm EST: The DEMOCRATICALLY CONTROLLED HOUSE has just rejected the Amendment to the Financial Regulatory Reform Bill that would have allowed bankruptcy judges to ‘cramdown’ mortgages. This after we learned yesterday that of a pool of 3 MILLION delinquent homeowners (which is now up to 4.8 million BTW), Treasury/HUD have managed to get the banks to permanently modify 31,000, yes that’s thousand.  After that EPIC FAIL I became a SUPPORTER of this Amendment. It is not the BANKS holding these loans anymore peeps!! It is FAN FRED FHA!!!!

That being the case as taxpayers we will take a hit when those loans go to short sale and some investor makes a profit, WE will be bailing out FAN FRED (again) and FHA. Why wouldn’t we just buy the damned bad loans oh yeah that was what Paulson SAID he was gonna do with TARP.

Now WE the taxpayer guaranteeing FAN FRED FHA OWN these loans ALREADY. Why the hell arent we writing them down and taking the hit ONCE. Instead the homeowners get kicked out, it gets sold for less then the mortgage and we STILL give FAN FRED FHA the bailout for the loss. And now some investor with FREE money from the FED has the house and will dump it on the market in another bubble like the one they made that started this mess.

And Tim wants TARP II. But no cramdown. And they think they are ‘progressive’, they say they are Democrats.  Obama’s Treasury didn;t want it, therefore it didnt happen, This is Unbelievable.

This despite that IDENTICAL legislation had already PASSED the House once before and died in the Senate. Could not be more clear they are leaving the homeowners out to dry.

And everyone who lives near or is family with or sells goods to those homeowners. We are ALL gonna pay when people keep walking on these loans and getting foreclosed on, we will have ENDLESS bailouts of FAN FRED FHA as those homes are sold and resold in new bubbles and everyone makes a bundle but the taxpers and families who lose their homes. Utterly disgusting.

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Should BofA and CITI be allowed to leave TARP? Will they be back like a bad penny?

Look for the cramdown/judicial mod amendment action also. Since Treasury and the banks managed only 31,000 mods out of 3 MILLION loans I now support it, frak ’em.

Politico:

FINAL RULE ON THE REFORM BILL, including a summary of all 36 amendments made in order by the Rules Committee. Some got votes Thursday night, others will come today. Final passage is expected sometime around noon.

BILL HAS LOOPHOLES, report WSJ’s Damian Paletta and David Enrich, “Buried in a 239-page amendment to the U.S. House of Representatives’ financial regulatory overhaul is a provision that appears to do just one thing: exempts financial-services company USAA from some of the bill’s tougher provisions. The carve-out is one of a number of exceptions that allow companies to avoid fresh scrutiny envisioned by the White House, which is aiming to overhaul the nation’s financial-regulatory apparatus. The beneficiaries run from corporations such as General Electric Co. and Pitney Bowes Inc. to USAA, which caters to members of the military and their families, to so-called fraternal benefit societies.”

Geithner has learned NOTHING from the disasterous capital infusions into the big banks in TARP ROUND ONE. Now in Son of TARP he wants to EXEMPT everyone from the Feinberg pay czar that they installed to curb populist anger that THEY stoked in the first place!!! Which I agree was a stupid stupid limitation but CONGRESS did it, they will do it AGAIN. He cannot protect them. Who believes Congress will not arbitrarily add requirements later?

AND still no word on what the hexx they plan to do about HOUSING which was the FIRST thing named in TARP legislation…purpose was to address foreclosures and stabilize markets.:

WAPO REPORTS POSSIBLE SMALL BIZ TARP — by David Cho, A1, 2 column lead: “The Obama administration plans to channel money from the government’s massive financial bailout program to small businesses as part of an effort to limit the political and economic damage of high unemployment. One plan under consideration involves spinning off a new entity from [TARP] that would give banks access to federal funds without restrictions, including limits on executive pay, as long as the money was used to support loans to small businesses. … As an alternative, officials are prepared to ask Congress to modify TARP itself, easing the pay limits and other restrictions that would be imposed on small-business lenders taking the money, the sources said … Since the summer, the administration has been facing an uncomfortable dynamic in the economy. The ranks of the jobless have been growing, while big financial firms that got taxpayer bailout money have been thriving. In response, officials have been trying to recast TARP as aid for Main Street rather than Wall Street.”

GEITHNER SAYS SMALL BANKS WORRY OF TARP TAINT, reports FT’s Tom Braithwaite: “Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, on Thursday advocated exempting small businesses from restrictions attached to the bank bail-out program that Goldman Sachs , Citigroup and other large banks have been anxious to escape. In testimony to the Congressional Oversight Panel, Mr. Geithner said small banks were worried about being ‘stigmatized’ for asking for money from [TARP] and that this was exacerbating a credit crunch for their small business customers. They don’t want to come to do business with the government. ‘They think it’s a sign of weakness, not strength.’”

Geithner also pushed BofA and is pushing CITI paybacks of TARP, IMO to justify TARP 2: The Revenge of TARP!!!, over the objections of the FDIC. As originally reported by Andrew Ross Sorkin in the NYT. In the TARP C.O.P. questioning yesterday Geithner did not deny this. This morning a guest on CNBC noted this is a serious problem. We will post the video. FD: We are BofA/Merrill shareholders and have discussed this ad nauseum here on the site.

December 11, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, FDIC, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, TARP, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Update: Housing: Barney Frank D-MA House Financial Svcs Cmte hearing on HAMP & Loan Modifications…

Update 3: CSPAN will have the hearing up later at this linky. Three panels included the following:

The House Financial Services Committee held a hearing titled, titled “The Private Sector and Government Response to the Mortgage Foreclosure Crisis.” Panel One * Ms. Molly Sheehan, Senior Vice President, Chase Home Finance * Mr. Jack Schakett, Risk Management Executive, Credit Loss Mitigation Strategies * Ms. Julia Gordon, Senior Policy Counsel, Center for Responsible Lending * Dr. Anthony B. Sanders, Distinguished Professor of Real Estate Finance, Professor of Finance School of Management, George Mason University * Ms. Laurie Goodman, Senior Managing Director, Amherst Securities, LLP * Mr. Bruce Marks, Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America Panel Two * The Honorable Herbert M. Allison, Jr., Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability, U.S. Department of the Treasury * Mr. Michael H. Krimminger, Special Advisor for Policy, Office of the Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation * Mr. Douglas W. Roeder, Senior Deputy Comptroller Large Bank Supervision, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

Update 2: WSJ has some highlights. The Banks should pay attention, b/c TheHill is reporting the judicial modification aka cramdown bill is back, this time in the regulatory reform bill.

House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D, Mass.) harshly criticized the Obama administration’s efforts to keep people in their homes.”We have a great frustration with the failure of the combined efforts of elements of the federal government to make a substantial impact on the foreclosure crisis,” Mr. Frank said in opening remarks at a hearing before his panel Tuesday on lender and government responses to soaring foreclosures.

…Critics have ratcheted up attacks on the administration’s Making Home Affordable Program, which they say is ill-suited to address what they contend are the current causes of spiking foreclosures: negative equity, high unemployment and a wave of resets on complex mortgages that are difficult to modify. The program relies on hefty incentives for servicers to lower borrower payments to 31% of income.

…Executives from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. testified that the banks were struggling to move borrowers into permanent loan modifications because eligible borrowers weren’t submitting the required paperwork….

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December 8, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, TARP, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 2 comments.

WOW! Must See TV: Congressional JEC panel ripping Geithner apart: Rep Brady (R-TX) first to ask him to resign: MiM starts Obama economic team “shake-up” watch…

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If you look at UE Tim, the US is substantially WORSE off than it was when Obama took office to answer Timmehs whine….In fact someone should tell Tim, taking him at his word that he believes all measures, any measure of economic activity shows things are better since January, the measure of foreclosures and delinquencies has also more than doubled since Obama ‘took charge’:

Update: 12:10pm EST: uh oh. Kudlow says and Steve Liesman confirms, that Geithner is the most fiscally conservative member of Obamas economic advisers.  No wonder we are in a world of hurt! CNBC just ran the Brady Timmeh back n forth so it should come up in a video post shortly. will get it up right away.

Vodpod videos no longer available.

Update: 11:!5am OMG OMG Geithner just threw Seniors unda da bus!! He acknowledges to Brownback that yes the CBO score only works if Congress actually DOES the Medicare cuts and he insists they must and should and will DO THE CUTS. He says the costs have to be reduced, Brownback is saying but why cant we save Medicare? Good grief Geithner is a disaster, you aren’t supposed to tell Seniors they are getting thrown under there Timmeh, Obama will be displeased. Good ad for the GOP though!

WOW!! Excellent!!!! Live feed from CNBC here

I am starting Geithner Fired/Resigns Watch now, there will fer shure be some sort of ‘ Obama economic team shake-up’ to placate the rumblings as they get ready to ask for MORE STIMULUS…They can’t get away with it under Geithner IMO, looks like he is marked as sacrificial lamb, but the Progressives will be no happier with Larry Summers, lol….

By dequalss

Typos abound, getting ready while I do this- TImmeh is red and ranting and blaming Bush and Rep Brady made him acknowledge yes he was head of NY Fed when this collapse happened, and they are cross talking, Brady says the public has lost all confidence in Geithner and he reflects badly on his President, he says at some point Geithner has to take responsibility…ohhh excellent!!

Update: 11:04am EST: Rep. Burgess (R-TX) just said “I don;t think you should quit, you shouldn’t have been hired”. Is that a bus engine I hear idling??? This the Joint Economic Committee and is made up of both Senators and House members, double the fun!! Now Sen Brownback is going off about the health care plan and the Yuan peg…

(FD-MiM is a former AIG employee and shareholder and we have followed Geithner’s handling of the crisis as NY Fed-head closely for two years now, our posts on Geithner, Hank Paulson and AIG are legion. Our previous posts on Geithner and the troubled CITI bailout here and  here and here and here and here and even here ….)

Recall Sens DeMint and Isakson called on Geithner to resign last March. As did several members of the House.

This is in keeping with the report in TheHill this morning:

A Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) member said there’s “growing consensus” among liberals that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner should step down.

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) said Wednesday that he and other liberal House members are becoming increasingly tired of Obama administration economic policies that they say are too focused on maintaining the stability of Wall Street firms and largely ignore “Main Street.”“A growing consensus in the caucus [believe that Geithner should be removed],” DeFazio said on MSNBC this evening, adding that some lawmakers are “considering questions regarding him and other economic advisers.”

DeFazio said that lawmakers have not yet drafted a plan to remove Geithner. The lawmaker also took aim at top Obama economic adviser Larry Summers for furthering many of the same policies favored by Geithner.

“We need a new economic team,” said DeFazio…..

Hey man, live by the populist pitchforks, die by the populist pitchforks. Hard to put that class war genie back into the bottle and it was a HUGE mistake to embolden the populist rhetoric flame throwers in the House…

This drum beat is getting louder. Dodd thinks Geithner is a drag on his polling, lol, and Simmons, Dodd’s GOP opponent called for Geithner’s resignation already:

A former House Republican running for the Senate in Connecticut is calling for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to be replaced over his handling of AIG’s bailout.

GOP candidate Rob Simmons reacted to a report by Neil Barofsky, the inspector general of the $700 billion bailout program, known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Barofsky’s report criticized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which Geithner led during the bailout, for a series of missteps that Barofsky said ended up requiring the government to provide additional support to AIG.

“The report issued yesterday by the inspector general for the TARP program is a deeply troubling account of Secretary Geithner’s failed management of the AIG bailout in which he cost taxpayers $13 billion in unnecessary new debt,” said Simmons, who appears to be the only candidate or office-holder to call for Geithner’s replacement in response to the report.The federal government committed more than $180 billion to AIG, which was crippled by poor investments and trades in credit default swaps, a financial derivative.

Simmons also attacked his opponent, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), in the statement calling on Geithner to be replaced.

“The cozy relationships between the bailed-out financial companies and powerful politicians like Tim Geithner and Chris Dodd are exactly why Americans have lost trust in Washington, D.C., and why we need new leadership with the skills and integrity to clean up their mess and get our economy back on track.”…

More great housing news:

US mortgage delinquency rates and the percentage of loans that entered the foreclosure process jumped in the third quarter, with both reaching record highs, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Thursday.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started rose to 1.42 percent in the third quarter, an all-time high, up from 1.36 percent in the second quarter and 1.07 percent in the third quarter of 2008.

…The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.64 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2009, up 40 basis points from 9.24 percent in the second quarter and up 265 basis points from 6.99 percent one year ago, the MBA said in its National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate broke the record set last quarter. The records are based on MBA data dating back to 1972.

The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.47 percent, an increase of 17 basis points from 4.30 percent the second quarter of 2009 and 150 basis points from 2.97 percent one year ago.

The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure and at least one payment past due was 14.41 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey….

November 19, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . CITI, citigroup, Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Meredith Whitney: “I am the most bearish I have been in a year”

Meredith Whitney agrees with MiM and thinks we will have a double dip. She echoed the sentiments of this morning’s post. “I don’t know what’s going on in the market right now because it makes no sense to me,” she said.

Vodpod videos no longer available.

Airtime  Mon. Nov. 16 2009   1:11 PM ET

CNBC: Stocks are overvalued and the US economy is likely to fall back into a recession next year, well-known analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC…The banking index has advanced some 136 percent but the sector may have been at least fairly valued, says Meredith Whitney, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group CEO. In a wide-ranging interview, Whitney, CEO of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, also said:

“I haven’t been this bearish in a year,” she said in a live interview. “I look at the board and every single stock from Tiffany to Bank of America to Caterpillar is up. But there is no fundamental rooting as to why these names are up—particularly in the consumer space.”

  • She was disappointed that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn’t spell out how the Federal Reserve planned to exit “the biggest Fed program to date, which is the mortgage-backed purchase program.” In a speech earlier Thursday, Bernanke said the central bank was watching the dollar’s decline but is likely to keep interest rates low.
  • The US consumer was going through the biggest credit contraction ever—even bigger than that during the Great Depression. “That credit contraction is accelerating,” she said. “There’s nowhere to hide at this point.”
  • The banking sector is not adequately capitalized and will need to raise more capital in the coming year.
  • The residential real estate market is likely to worsen and remains a much bigger threat than the commercial property market. The government’s mortgage modification program won’t result in any major improvement in homeowners’ ability to stay above water, she added.

“I don’t know what’s going on in the market right now because it makes no sense to me,” she said.

“The scariest thing about the Fed’s program is that the money on the sidelines isn’t going to support that asset class,” she added. “So the trillion dollars of Fannie (Mae), Freddie (Mac) and mortgage-backed securities that the Fed is holding—there’s no substitute buyer there.”

more about “Meredith Whitney: “I am the most bear…“, posted with vodpod

November 16, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Meredith Whitney on the new normal & Fed exit from MBS purchases, its impact on banks, housing…

MEREDITH WHITNEY

Meredith Whitney - Photo: Bloomberg News

Update 2: Bloomberg on Whitney’s call:

The S&P 500 Financials Index slumped 1.5 percent, the most among 10 industries, after the House vote and as analyst Meredith Whitney said the biggest U.S. banks may face declining values on home-loan bonds with government backing as the Fed prepares to end its $1.25 trillion purchase program.

Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo increased holdings of so-called agency mortgage-backed securities by 44 percent from the third quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009, Whitney said in a note yesterday to investors. Those increases came as the Fed began buying securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae in an attempt to keep mortgage rates low and spur housing demand, she wrote.

JPMorgan fell 1.2 percent to $42.21, while Wells Fargo slid 3.1 percent to $26.82 and Citigroup lost 1.7 percent to $3.97.

Update: Ms Whitney wrote an excellent op ed in the WSJ last month outlining what we can expect in the financial sector and consumer going forward. Read it here.  ‘Main Street represents the foundation of this country. Reviving it should take priority over any regulatory reform or systemic overhaul.’

Meredith Whitney is IMO the best bank analyst on the street bar none.

She put out two notes to clients last night, ABSOLUTE MUST READS:

1) Ain’t Gonna Happen, where she argues that “normalized” earnings for banks is a fallacy, that it’s more likely we will see protracted consumer deleveraging, fewer consumers who qualify for credit, and dramatic regulatory change, which will negatively impact earnings for a protracted period, and

2) The Great Exit: The Biggest Market & Bank Risk Over the Next Four Months, a long note on the importance of the Fed’s agency MBS purchase program, where she argues that uncertainty over when the program will end (now scheduled for end of Q1 2010), and who the substitute buyer for the Fed will be, means that “prices will go down meaningfully and rates will go up meaningfully.” She argues that it is possible the mortgage market will again shrink notably: “We believe this represents one of the larger risks to the banks and overall market over the next several months.”

November 4, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Politics, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Update: Reid:deal reached on expanding homebuyer tax credit–UE vote within 24 hours; Unemployment Extension Update: Reid now trying to put homebuyer tax credit back in UE bill?? Senate to proceed to UE bill @930am EST; Bill passes cloture 87-13

Update 5: 11/2 newer new thread following UE vote here

Update 4: New thread following UE vote here

Update 3: 430pm EST: Breaking on CNBC- Diana Olick says Harry Reid’s office confirms a deal has been reached on the homebuyers tax credit, It WILL BE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED to include more than 1st time buyers, and IT WILL BE ATTACHED TO THE UE EXTENSION BILL

Reid says he expects a vote on said UE bill WITHIN 24 HOURS.

More as it becomes available…

(Diana Olick’s RealtyCheckBlog, earlier compromise report with details, details moved to Housing Update post.)

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October 23, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Labor Department, Obama Administration, Politics, Unemployment Statistics. 11 comments.

Update: DOW closes down 203-ISM well below expectations, 30 yr bond hits 4.00%, pending home sales rocket -Market Mover Thursday: Weekly Jobless claims rise..

Update: 4:54 pm EST: DOW closes down 203 to 9509.28; S & P down 27.23 to 1029.85, NAS down 64.94 to 2057.48

grizzly1

Update 1:22pm EST:

DOW now down 176.85 to 9535.43

S & P off 23.29 to 1033.79

NAS down 58.05 to 2066.37

30 yr now 3.95%!

10 yr 3.19%

Update: ISM well below expectations 52.6, that is a DROP from August reading of 52.9, thus delta going wrong way…DOW now down 82 to 9630…

but pending home sales JUMP (IMO off the pending END to the homebuyer tax credit, ends Nov 30th) markets ricocheting off the data…

Pending Home Sales rocket, NAR says it is due to paperwork backlogs wha?
Okay NAR says pending home sales UP but NOT NECESSARILY CLOSING, ahh funding and appraisal disputes abound, NAR says sales up on short sales pending for ‘complex appraisal rules’.:

up 16% in the West
up 8.2% in the NorthEast
up 3.1% in Midwest
up 0.8% in the South

wall_st_bear_small‘unexpectedly’ (Only to the Hopium Smokin’ KoolAid Drinkin’ Pundits is this ‘unexpected’)

This is the weekly jobs number, the big one, monthly August jobs data will be released tomorrow.

Breaking on CNBC-

Weekly jobless claims (week ending 09/26) rise 17,000 to 551,000

Personal spending up 0.3%– 1.3% all Clunkers

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally adjusted 551,000 in the week ending Sept. 26 from a revised 534,000 in the previous week. Analysts polled by\ Reuters were expecting claims of 530,000, which would have been unchanged from the previously reported figure…

..Government data on Wednesday showed spending dropped at a 0.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter after rising 0.6 percent in the January-March period…

Jim Rogers joins MiM’s bandwagon in a call we are  ‘facing retro 70s inflation’

The US faces high inflation because of the weak dollar and the Federal Reserve’s policy of printing money to counter the effects of the crisis, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC Thursday. Price rises in the US are already steeper than the inflation rate reported by the government, Rogers added.”There’s no question the US is vulnerable to hyperinflation down the road or certainly the inflation we saw in the 1970s, I would expect that to come back in the foreseeable future, certainly in the next few years,” he said.


“The true inflation rate in America? It’s certainly at least 6 or 7 percent, the US government lies about it, as you know, everybody who shops knows that prices are up, everybody except the US government, and I wish we knew where they shopped so we can shop there too and get good prices.”

Rogers repeated his view that the Fed’s quantitative easing program is “debasing the currency” and said he was “extremely worried” about the fate of the dollar over the long term…..

Waiting for September ISM release..

October 1, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Labor Department, Obama Administration, Politics, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Video Update: Market Movers this week: Case Shiller Index-still declining but off lows, monthly jobs report Friday…

Update 2: More on that shadow inventory courtesy of Smart Money:

(…)the outlook for housing by Amherst Securities Group, whose stuff we’ve quoted before and whose analysis is invariably first-rate. The report, dated last Wednesday, festooned with gory detail, focuses on the swollen overhang, the so-called shadow inventory, that has grown inexorably in the wake of the tsunami of default and foreclosure.

Amherst estimates this massive overhang at seven million units. That’s the equivalent of 135% of a full year’s existing-home sales and chillingly greater than the 1.27 million units that made up the overhang in early 2005, when the housing bubble had just begun its dizzying and more than a little lunatic ascent.

…Three factors are cited by Amherst as the chief culprits in this sorry narrative. The first is the rapidity with which what it describes as the nonperforming bucket (where the mortgages are at least 60 days delinquent) is filling. The second is the strikingly low “cure rate” on delinquent loans. In 2005, homeowners retrieved 66% of their loans delinquent 60 days or longer. That percentage shriveled to a paltry 5% in the second quarter of ’09.

And, finally, bloating the inventory overhang is the lengthening time between delinquency and liquidation. Of the loans in the delinquent pipeline in August 2009, 9% have not made a payment in over 24 months, compared with 4% in 2008. The reasons cited by Amherst for this stretching out include moratoriums on foreclosures and the slow pace of the judicial process in states where a judge’s O.K. is required for foreclosure...GO READ THE WHOLE EXCELLENT PIECE!

wall-street21

UPDATE: More on the Case Shiller Home Price Index:

  • 10 & 20 city composites are up 3.6% from their lows.

These guys are hyping minimal improvement here, AGAIN. SHOCKAH! They are looking at month-to-month which is not the way to gauge, you need y/y in RE!

Here comes David Blitzer to break it out- he sees ‘clear signs it is turning up’, it ‘will be slow’ still ‘clear risk there may be backsliding at some point but it definitely looks encouraging’ Erin Burnette is ‘clinging’ to the ALMOST FLAT Y/Y for Dallas and Denver HA! Blitzer notes they include foreclosure sales and anecdotal data is foreclosures are out there, and he acknowledges the resets in 2010 are coming, and HA he finally notes the tax credit is ending in November, ya!

Here is the REAL DATA YEAR OVER YEAR from the same report – 1 YEAR CHANGE:

Dallas down 1.6%

Denver down 2.9%

Detroit down 24.6%

Las Vegas down 31.4%

L.A. down 14.9%

Miami down 21.2%

Minneapolis down 17.3%

New York down 10.3%

Phoenix down 28.5% (ouch!)

Portland down 13.9%

San Diego down 12.3%

San Francisco down 17.9%

Seattle down 15.3%

Tampa down 18.4%

Washington down 9.8%

THESE ARE NOT GOOD NUMBERS FOLKS!!!!

Here are the ridiculous tiny blips they are getting excited about, recall these are the 30 day change from June to July in %:

Atlanta up 2.3%

Boston up 1.2%

Charlotte up 0.6% (wow let’s take out some equity and restart the economy! uhm NOT!)

Continues after the break:

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September 29, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Housing, Labor Department, Wall St. 1 comment.

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