Video: Meredith Whitney on State Budgets, bank earnings

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Courtesy of CNBC:

Airtime: Tues. Sept. 28 2010  12:12 PM ET

The financial challenges states face could be the next systemic risk within the financial markets, according to Meredith Whitney, CEO of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group.

Video: Meredith Whitney on State Budgets, bank …, posted with vodpod

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September 28, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Politics, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

CSPAN Q&A with Meredith Whitney

An hour with, IMO,  the best financial analyst on the street. Enjoy!

Courtesy of CSPAN:

Our guest on Q&A is Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC. In 2007, she was the first financial analyst to predict major losses for Citigroup, one of the nation’s largest financial services companies. Program from Sunday, September 5, 2010.

September 7, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Labor Department, Obama Administration, Politics, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 1 comment.

Meredith Whitney – Housing double dip is here, Middle Class Squeeze to get worse…

This Congress is killing the middle class.

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CNBC:

…Whitney also said financial regulation reform and policy-making that is not friendly to the middle class will hurt growth.

“The populist incumbents argue that we’ve got to get money to redistribute wealth,” she said. “This squeezes the middle class further down the food chain. The unintended consequences of this are maddening.”..

Meanwhile back in DC our HUD secretary is either deluded or spinning like a top:

…”There is no question that today’s housing market is in significantly better shape than anyone predicted 18 months ago,” he told reporters, adding, “Seventeen months after President Obama took office our housing market is stabilizing.”

To support the claim, the HUD chief released a scorecard on the housing market that showed after 30 straight months of decline, home prices have leveled off and are expected to begin adjusting upward.

It also showed that since April 2009, 2.8 million homeowners have received restructured mortgages through Obama’s loan modification programs, and more than 2.5 million families used the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit to purchase a home. The credit was a part of the first stimulus bill Obama signed into law shortly after taking office….

BWAAAAHAA!!! ROTFLMAO!!!!! HAMP and the Tax Credit worked he says!! BWAAAAHAAFRAKKINHAAAA!~!!! ZOMG! Ahh man they really slay me.

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June 21, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

More Meredith Whitney: Investors should avoid banks at all cost…

Money quote- “Politicians have proven far worse than our worst expectations,”

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CNBC:

Investors should “avoid financials at all costs, particularly in the banking sector” because the Senate’s financial reform bill will end up restricting credit and hurt bank earnings, well-known banking analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

…Whitney cited two new credit card rules in the Senate bill as particularly onerous. One would force banks to comply with individual state caps on credit card interest rates. The other would regulate how much credit card issuers could charge merchants for using their cards.The state caps on interest rates, she said, could make rates in one state lower than in another, causing banks not to lend in certain states.

“It’s going to make accessing capital so difficult for pockets of the country,” she said, particularly for small businesses that often depend on credit cards for funding….

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May 17, 2010. Tags: , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Market Movers: Meredith Whitney on the small business credit crunch and NY Fed’s Empire business conditions index PLUNGES…

The double dip is coming baby, believe it, and the Congress Critters attempts to ‘help us’  are making it worse…Read the entire piece by Meredith Whitney for the coming layoffs at the state level..

WSJ:

…Unless real focus is afforded to re-engaging small businesses in this country, we will have a tragic and dangerous unemployment level for an extended period of time. Small businesses fund themselves exactly the way consumers do, with credit cards and home equity lines. Over the past two years, more than $1.5 trillion in credit-card lines have been cut, and those cuts are increasing by the day. Due to dramatic declines in home values, home-equity lines as a funding option are effectively off the table. Proposed regulatory reform—specifically interest-rate caps and interchange fees—will merely exacerbate the cycle of credit contraction plaguing small businesses.

If banks are not allowed to effectively price for risk, they will not take the risk. Right now we need banks, and particularly community banks, more than ever to step in and provide liquidity to small businesses. Interest-rate caps and interchange fees will more likely drive consumer credit out of the market and many community banks out of business….

…It is important now to support any and all lending activities that would enable small businesses to begin hiring again. If the regulatory reform passes with rate-cap and interchange regulation amendments incorporated, small businesses will be hurt rather than helped. Politicians and regulators need to appreciate the core structural challenges facing unemployment in the U.S….

Empire State general business conditions index- CNBC:

…The New York Fed’s “Empire State” general business conditions index fell to 19.11 in May from 31.86 in April.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a May figure of 30.00….

...The new orders index fell to 14.30 from 29.49 in April….

May 17, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Obama Administration, Politics, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Meredith Whitney: Goldman has lost its edge & housing double dip still ahead…

Update: Housing prices fall, Case Schiller is having a hard time with their price series due to enormous jumps in seasonality this go around,

After reviewing the data, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Committee believes that, for the present, the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator and, thus, reports should focus on the year-over-year changes where seasonal shifts are not a factor. Additionally, if monthly changes are considered, the unadjusted series should be used….

this is unlike any other housing drop, in terms of severity and government intervention, so any series cannot capture where prices are going..

…On an unadjusted basis, prices dropped 0.9 percent in February, worse than the estimated 0.3 percent decline and following a 0.4 percent downturn in January….

…The report suggests more price erosion is possible before prices start rising on a sustained basis, S&P said. The price improvement can be attributed to momentum from the federal homebuyer tax credits, which expire on April 30, and prices could be pressured further by foreclosure sales….

More on falling prices from First Logic via Calculated Risk:

…On a month-over-month basis, the national average home price index fell by 2.0 percent in February 2010 compared to January 2010, which was steeper than the previous one-month decline of 1.6 percent from December to January…

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Best financials analyst on the street Meredith Whitney’s latest comments on financials and housing via CNBC:

Beleaguered banking giant Goldman Sachs has lost much of the edge it had over competitors due to the recent government charges and is a stock investors should avoid, analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

…(GS) faces a future in which its brand has been tainted and it will lose business to small competitors, said Whitney, who doesn’t have a “buy” rating on Goldman or any of the other big banks…

…The company’s stock should trade around book value, Whitney added, which would place the price just above $120….

Reasserts the double dip in housing-

…On other issues, Whitney called proposed new financial reform regulations “squishy” but said the result will be banks shrinking their balance sheets and consumers forced to seek predatory lenders for credit.

She also renewed her prediction that the housing market would see a double dip as more inventory is forced back onto the market.

April 27, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , , . Economy, FDIC, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, TARP, Wall St. 2 comments.

Meredith Whitney: Housing set to fall again, S&P earnings impact…

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April 14, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, TARP, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

Meredith Whitney & Jamie Dimon on principal forbearance in the JPMorgan Chase earnings call PLUS Are JPMC, BofA, Citi taking kickbacks for second liens on short sales?! & HAMP/MHA assisted a whopping 7% of those eligible last year..

Update:  Short Sale Kickback video added

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In other great news, Diana Olick is breaking a HUGE story now on CNBC that the big servicers, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citi have demanded off-HUD, off ClosingStmt payments to release second liens they hold in short sales (against RESPA law).

Treasury told Diana they were unaware of this and will look into it. Good grief. and they wonder why the servicers dont want to do mods? THEY ARE GETTING KICKBACKS ON SHORT SALES! Plus they get an INCENTIVE PAYMENT to do short sales from Treasury (we the taxpayers) now. My Lord this is unreal.

Again this is the fault of the WH and Treasury.  Treasury actually RAISED the cap on the ‘incentive fees’ the servicers can earn by doing their damn job as servicers today to 35 billion. Banks will do exactly what they can and no more. Sheila Bair at FDIC is the only one moving on principal forbearance, as usual she is ahead of the curve.

Plus the AP isn’t buying the BS spin anymore in its reporting of the much vaunted numbers Treasury is spinning today on their newly permanent mods (which they told the servicers to waive documentation for to achieve, the only thing the trial mods can be disqualified for now is ‘property’ disqualification, nice eh?):

The Obama administration’s mortgage relief plan provided help to only 7 percent of borrowers who signed up last year, another black mark for the struggling program.

Ouch that’ll leave a mark.

About 900,000 borrowers have enrolled in the $75 billion program since it launched in March, the Treasury Department said Friday. But as of last month, only about 66,500 homeowners had received permanent relief. Another 46,000 have been approved and should be finalized soon.The plan aims to make borrowers’ mortgages more affordable by reducing the mortgage interest rate to as low as 2 percent. They receive temporary modifications, which are supposed to become permanent after borrowers make three payments on time and complete necessary paperwork, including proof of income and a letter explaining the reason for their financial hardship.

The Treasury Department is pressing the 102 mortgage companies that are participating in the program to do a better job….

This is a great back and forth. I think we can confirm Treasury is doing exactly JACK SHXT about meaningful mods after hearing this discussion, so much for Obama being tough on those fat cats:

CalculatedRisk:

Here is an exchange between Meredith Whitney and Jamie Dimon on the JPMorgan conference call this morning (ht Brian):

Whitney: [W]e’re reaching a critical point in terms of all of the loan modification efforts and this is an industry question but then how it specifically affects your Company, given the fact that the industry feedback and statistics on the loan modification efforts are not good, so you question what’s the next initiative and the issue of principal forbearance. How much momentum do you think that has, can you comment on what stage we are in terms of obviously the extension ends [soon] with the last slug is over in February, so where do you think we are in terms of the government’s efforts to influence banks to do certain things?

Dimon: Well remember we do modifications of our own and we do the government modifications and I do think they’re kind of new, it was complex, and I think people will get better at it over time, Meredith. We have not thought of a better way to do it than loan by loan, which is does the person want to live there, can they afford to live there, and we really think that the payment, how much you’re paying is more important than principal. Even if you are going to do something on principal, to do it right you have to do it loan by loan and it effectively comes a similar kind of thing. The difficulty is the loan by loan part and we’ve asked the government and I think they tried to streamline a little bit to have programs because there’s too much paperwork involved in it so a lot of the reasons we’re not getting to final modifications half the time we don’t finish the paperwork, so they need the lower payments but they weren’t finishing the paperwork so we’re trying to get better at it, honestly, we rack our brains to figure out if there’s a better way to do it and you can do it more macro than loan by loan but once you start talking about macro, you’re going to get involved in a lot of issues about whether the people live there, whether they have the ability to pay, whether they were honest when they first told people how much their incomes were, so we’re working through it.

Whitney: Okay, do you get a sense that there’s something right behind HAMP, that there’s another solution for the government or is it more your efforts?

Dimon: We’re trying to do this, look, we’re trying to have ideas and they are trying to have ideas but if we had a brilliant one we would be very supportive of doing it. We want to do the right thing for the people.

Whitney: Okay, so a point of clarification on your answer, issue of principal forbearance is not something that people should be overly concerned about with respect to reserves and capital for the bank?

Dimon: No, I think if there’s a macro government force on something like that you could have a fairly significant effect on loan loss reserves and losses, etc.

Whitney: But is that a real, any momentum?

Dimon: Honestly Meredith you probably know as well as we do.

Whitney: I don’t know. I can’t help myself on that one.

Neither can we!

January 15, 2010. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, FDIC, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, TARP, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. Comments off.

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