Housing Update: Treasury report on Homeowner Mods from Diana Olick

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Diana Olick’s Realty Check:

“Today the Treasury Department releases its monthly status report on its Home Affordable Modification Program launched last Spring.This is the one that gives the number of trial mods offered and then lists all the servicers and shows what they are and, more importantly, are not doing for troubled borrowers. The report goes through Sept. 30th, but the Administration didn’t want to let an important milestone go by, so they had a short conference call this morning with reporters.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner began: “We are announcing today that half a million families are now participating in loan modifications that are substantially reducing their mortgage costs and therefore increasing the amount of money they get to keep.” That was the figure officials targeted several months ago to get to by the end of October, and here we are only at October 8th, so a little back-slapping going on there. “It means that we’re now reaching almost half or roughly 40% of the people currently eligible for this program,” Geithner added.”

But wait a minute! The program was announced with much brouhaha about 3-4 million eligible homeowners! Are they lowering the bar?

“What’s more important than that milestone, Secretary Geithner aptly points out, is that “the number of people participating in trial modifications is now, for the first time, increasing at a rate faster than new families are becoming eligible for this program, that is, facing the risk of foreclosure.”The statement left me wondering how long that would actually hold true? First of all, we have to be clear that he said those “currently eligible for the program.” Now as one reporter on the call pointed out smartly, if the Treasury Secretary says half a million are taking part, and that’s roughly 40 percent of the people eligible, that would mean about 1.2 million are eligible, and at the start of the program, the administration said 3-4 million would be eligible.

So a “Senior Administration Official” was left to do the math.First of all, that 3-4 million is extrapolated out through next year and the year after, because as we all know the foreclosure crisis isn’t getting much better. But then you have to remove all the folks that are not eligible, which is a long list: First there are those with FHA or VA loans, who are being modified separately, then those above the jumbo-conforming loan limit, then those non-owner-occupied types (investors), then those who ditched the home and are long gone, and then those who already have an “affordable” loan but just choose not to pay it. Take those out and you get to 1.2 million.”

Mkay, what about the second dip in housing as foreclosures rise to unemployment and WTH is going on with the shadow inventory of homes the banks are not foreclosing on (they dont want to take the write downs the frakkers) Diana has the scoop, as usual!:

More after the break:

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October 8, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics. 1 comment.

Video Update: Market Movers this week: Case Shiller Index-still declining but off lows, monthly jobs report Friday…

Update 2: More on that shadow inventory courtesy of Smart Money:

(…)the outlook for housing by Amherst Securities Group, whose stuff we’ve quoted before and whose analysis is invariably first-rate. The report, dated last Wednesday, festooned with gory detail, focuses on the swollen overhang, the so-called shadow inventory, that has grown inexorably in the wake of the tsunami of default and foreclosure.

Amherst estimates this massive overhang at seven million units. That’s the equivalent of 135% of a full year’s existing-home sales and chillingly greater than the 1.27 million units that made up the overhang in early 2005, when the housing bubble had just begun its dizzying and more than a little lunatic ascent.

…Three factors are cited by Amherst as the chief culprits in this sorry narrative. The first is the rapidity with which what it describes as the nonperforming bucket (where the mortgages are at least 60 days delinquent) is filling. The second is the strikingly low “cure rate” on delinquent loans. In 2005, homeowners retrieved 66% of their loans delinquent 60 days or longer. That percentage shriveled to a paltry 5% in the second quarter of ’09.

And, finally, bloating the inventory overhang is the lengthening time between delinquency and liquidation. Of the loans in the delinquent pipeline in August 2009, 9% have not made a payment in over 24 months, compared with 4% in 2008. The reasons cited by Amherst for this stretching out include moratoriums on foreclosures and the slow pace of the judicial process in states where a judge’s O.K. is required for foreclosure...GO READ THE WHOLE EXCELLENT PIECE!

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UPDATE: More on the Case Shiller Home Price Index:

  • 10 & 20 city composites are up 3.6% from their lows.

These guys are hyping minimal improvement here, AGAIN. SHOCKAH! They are looking at month-to-month which is not the way to gauge, you need y/y in RE!

Here comes David Blitzer to break it out- he sees ‘clear signs it is turning up’, it ‘will be slow’ still ‘clear risk there may be backsliding at some point but it definitely looks encouraging’ Erin Burnette is ‘clinging’ to the ALMOST FLAT Y/Y for Dallas and Denver HA! Blitzer notes they include foreclosure sales and anecdotal data is foreclosures are out there, and he acknowledges the resets in 2010 are coming, and HA he finally notes the tax credit is ending in November, ya!

Here is the REAL DATA YEAR OVER YEAR from the same report – 1 YEAR CHANGE:

Dallas down 1.6%

Denver down 2.9%

Detroit down 24.6%

Las Vegas down 31.4%

L.A. down 14.9%

Miami down 21.2%

Minneapolis down 17.3%

New York down 10.3%

Phoenix down 28.5% (ouch!)

Portland down 13.9%

San Diego down 12.3%

San Francisco down 17.9%

Seattle down 15.3%

Tampa down 18.4%

Washington down 9.8%

THESE ARE NOT GOOD NUMBERS FOLKS!!!!

Here are the ridiculous tiny blips they are getting excited about, recall these are the 30 day change from June to July in %:

Atlanta up 2.3%

Boston up 1.2%

Charlotte up 0.6% (wow let’s take out some equity and restart the economy! uhm NOT!)

Continues after the break:

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September 29, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Housing, Labor Department, Wall St. 1 comment.

All About FHA: A Bumpy Ride Gets Worse…

Okay so it appears that the FHA has 4.4% reserves ‘insured’ for potential losses, yet 14% of their loans are late. They repeatedly ‘assure’ us they will not require a taxpayer bailout, yet UBS and RealtyTrac project mortgage losses escalating through 2011 and FHA is at last count approx 25% of the mortgage market…D-E-N-I-A-L? Or is there enormous pressure perhaps,  to push back any oncoming bailout until the dopey health care bill gets rammed through?

Diana Olick Realty Check:

Someone get me the smelling salts, because I’m shocked, yes passing out over the latest headline from the FHA: “Officials Anticipate Annual Actuarial Study to Show Capital Reserve Ratio Dropping Below Congressionally-Mandated 2 Percent.”Read news story here.

The writing has been on the wall, in red, for a good long time. Last Tuesday, on this very blog, I wrote: FHA Claims It Won’t Need Bailout.

When I put the question of undercapitalization to FHA officials last week, they sent me this very complicated statement, which you can go back and read, but which starts by saying they would not comment until they receive the actuarial study. Today they say said study is “being completed.”Sept. 30th, I’m told, is the due date.

Last week they told me the same thing they’re saying today, that they are undercapitalized, but still okay.(Except last week they said they hold more than 5 percent of their insurance in force. Today they put that at 4.4 percent.)

“To be clear, the fund’s reserves are sufficient to cover our future losses, so the FHA will not require taxpayer assistance or new Congressional action,” said Commissioner David Stevens in a statement this morning. “That said, given the size and scope of the FHA and its importance to today’s market, these risk management and credit policy changes are important steps in strengthening the FHA fund, by ensuring that lenders have proper and sufficient protection.”

Ok, so why won’t they need a bailout? Next paragraph:

“FHA’s congressionally mandated capital reserve ratio…measures excess reserves above and beyond projected losses over the next 30 years. FHA continues to hold more than $30 billion in its reserves today, or more than 4.4 percent of it insurance in force.”

And the upshot is they will HAVE to tighten standards to avoid the losses (because we are, as Kudlow said just this morning on The Call, repeating the exact steps that led to the housing collapse). That will pressure the housing market recovery (albeit for excellent reasons).

At MiM we always say, take the loss and move forward! The incessant attempts to avoid cyclical recessions always, always leads to a bubble and a BIGGER downturn than we would have if we just let the business and economic cycle naturally ..well cycle!

When this lending standard tightening goes into effect we predict ACORN and Co. will scream until Barney Frank (D-MA) writes more legislation that either turns all the homes into subsidized low income rental housing, or forces more lending below GAAP underwriting standards, reinflating the bubble. And this is without even touching the Team TOTUS plan to remake FANNIE and FREDDIE which they have not yet revealed. So buckle up for a bumpy housing ride!

September 18, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Celebrities, Economy, Film, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Popular Culture, Suspense, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 4 comments.

Housing: Making Home Affordable mortgage modification plan poll…

Aloha. Please take a second to click the poll below. A few emails have come in requesting an in-depth drilldown of details and expanded coverage of the Making Home Affordable Modification program and I have spent weeks researching for my own interests but before I dive in to more posts on the subject I want to get an idea of how many people want/need the additional info. Gracias.

September 10, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing. 2 comments.

Housing: Foreclosures still rising – RealtyTrac confirms earlier UBS’ forecast- won’t peak until 2010…

Here is our post on the UBS forecast for housing foreclosures and mortgage defaults

RealtyTrac concurred with UBS’ position today:

Team TOTUS needs to get the programs that they have already announced properly implemented (HAMP, HASP, PPIP) and either a. working or b. scrap them, cut off the funds, and try something else as far as housing is concerned or we will hit that second leg down in conjunction with a rising tax environment a la Congress and the consumer will go down for a generation IMO…

and don’t even think about anything in the Middle East happening to hit oil prices cuz then we will get another 2 years of TOTUS blaming THAT for his economic failure just as he stops blaming Boooosh!

Barney Frank and Dick Durbin are ready to reintroduce the bankruptcy cramdown bill and the banks have no one to blame but themselves at this point.

..The second-most powerful Democrat in the Senate called the Obama administration’s mortgage modification program“a waste of time” Wednesday, hours after the White House released disappointing new data about the program’s effectiveness

…Mr. Frank has been arguing that if the administration’s loan modification efforts, which rely on voluntary participation by mortgage servicers, don’t improve, then the political winds will move in his favor—and against the banks. “Let me put it this way,” he said at Wednesday’s hearing. “The best lobbyists we have for getting bankruptcy legislation passed are the servicers who are not doing a very good job of modifying mortgages. And if they do not improve their performance, then they improve the chances of that legislation.”…

Meredith Whitney mentioned on CNBC this morning that the banks have increased their MBS holdings of all things, are they buying each other’s properties to avoid taking writedowns after 90 days on foreclosed props??

Is that why people are making market offers and getting turned down by the banks? When will the banks get a CLUE that in THIS political environment their best interest is not served by artificially inflating asset values and failing to make MEANINGFUL modifications with the Federal incentive payments and taking a tiny profit, rather than not doing so and being TOTALLY rolled by Frank and Durbin and thereby starting a cycle of bad loans to people who cannot afford the homes all over again???? Hmmmnnn? Memo to banks suck it up, take the hit, walk it off like consumers do before you get reamed by Team TOTUS’ machine…

September 10, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, TARP, Wall St. 2 comments.

Treasury: Millions more foreclosures coming…

housinginyourhands

Our previous posts on the Making Home Affordable program here

Treasury says Millions more foreclosures coming, but their Making Home Affordable program is a success!

Uh, wha? Way to set your high standards there Treasury! They have put only 360,000 loans in modification out of an estimate of 7-9 MILLION homeowners that TOTUS Treasury Team put forward on February 18th of this year.

Maybe TOTUS should have given his, ‘you owe it to the country to do your best’ speech to his Treasury officials instead of our kids, eh?

CNBC:

…Michael Barr, assistant treasury secretary for financial institutions, told a House Financial Services subcommittee that the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, launched earlier this year was on target to help a half million at-risk homeowners by Nov. 1.

But, “even if HAMP is a total success, we should still expect millions of foreclosures” as efforts continue to stabilize the crisis-stricken housing sector, he said.

In a report released Wednesday, the Treasury said only 12 percent of the troubled U.S. homeowners believed to be eligible for loan modifications under the Obama administration’s housing rescue plan have had their mortgages reworked….

Gee they have a pretty low bar for success there in D.C….God Bless the American people

September 9, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration. Comments off.

Stiglitz agrees with MiM ‘W’ economic forecast…

Hey let’s put on some Ritz MiM style, the grand chief poohbah high muckety mucks of the ivy league intelligentsia Feldstein, Stiglitz, Krugman, Gross you know their names…and they all loved them some Obama…Well now Stiglitz is the latest to go on record echoing MiM’s position which we took here on the blog lo these many moons ago…the flat L leading to the double dip….

CNBC:

Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz on Thursday gave a gloomy assessment of a rebound in the U.S. economy, saying he does not see a resurgence in the strong consumer spending that has been a key driver of growth.

poohbah…But Stiglitz said the U.S. economy faces the possibility of low economic growth over a long-term period or the possibility of a “double-dip” recession whereby a recovery is not sustained.

It is not possible to predict whether we have a malaise or a W (shaped growth pattern). But there is a significant chance of a W,” he said. “It is not as if the second dip is going to be as bad as the first dip,” he said. Instead, it could mean the economy rotates through a process of low growth followed by contraction.

“We are not seeing a recovery of sustained consumption,” in the United States, said Stiglitz, who said he has been consulted on an informal basis by the Obama Administration to talk about the major economic issues….

Gee I wonder why, ‘we are not seeing a recovery of SUSTAINED CONSUMPTION’?? Could it be because THE FRAKKIN IDIOTS IN DC ARE SCARING THE EVER LOVIN CRXP OUT OF WE CONSUMERS WITH THEIR HARE BRAINED SPENDING AND TAX PLANS??!! HMMMMNNN? Could be rabbit, could be!!! Is TOTUS doing bugs? Would I add this gigantic spending plan if the economy was about to collapse in a second leg down? You might TOTUS you might!

Have said it before, will say it again- What a bunch of maroons. For a group of the ‘Smartest People Evah’ they are awfully dense about how their ‘visionary changes’ impact real world consumers. Their pie in the sky ideas of de-industrializing the US and slowing population growth and greening everything and the greater good, cap and trade, change housing codes nationwide, pay cash for clunkers, take over car companies, then health care, they are really SHOCKED that 21 Century Americans do not want to go all ‘neo socialist Luddite’ with them…

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They can claim anything they want, but they pixxed away 800 billion in ways that do not help the consumer feel safe and spend, have jobs and spend, pay off some debt and spend. There is no THERE there in that spendulus. All it did was ADD to consumers low expectations and high deficit concerns. The S & P financials are headed for a second crash IMO, commercial RE is about to hit the FDIC in a wave of bank failures and the end of 2010-11 will see a tripling of the current residential foreclosure wave as we have discussed here before.

They are SOL in the 2010 elections, they simply don’t have the money to fix what they have done with the spent bullets of the spendulus and TARP bazooka, they are out of ammo, the FED is making noises that they are split on continued quantitative easing and MBS purchases. Bill Gross at PIMCO says they will have to stay loose and keep buying to keep rates low or send housing off the second cliff. This is precisely why Krugman was suddenly pro giant deficit and Gross is making noises about the end of stimulus being a problem.

News flash geniuses Americans will not support ANY MORE GIANT SPENDULUS bills. That ship sailed baby, and sunk. It was overloaded with ‘interest group’ payoffs…I heard an analyst on Caterpillar CAT today talking about how the spendulus was less than 3% infrastructure and CAT will not have a bump in 2010. Remember TOTUS in Elkhart and talking with CAT workers? How awful. And now Pete Stark D-outoftouch is talking about laying a tax on all Wall St stock transactions to pay for billions in what? You guessed it INFRASTRUCTURE. Fuggedaboudit.

Treasury is out talking up additional mortgage help for homeowners as they see all this coming, and yet in the face of all this Team TOTUS is STILL going to attempt a 1 trillion dollar health care bill? The Administration needs to find religion and go moderate or 2/3 of Congress can go home in 2010…

Young Frankenstein courtesy of cristiancd

Bugs Bunny courtesy of chrispdx

September 3, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Economy, FDIC, Finance, Foreclosures, Healthcare, Housing, Obama Administration, Politics, Taxes, Unemployment Statistics, Wall St. 3 comments.

Housing Update: New Guidelines for FHA mortgage modifications released….

housinginyourhands

Finally. This is great news for FHA mortgagees. MiM will post the Treasury docs when they are released…

WSJ:

…Like the broader Obama program, the FHA plan seeks to reduce mortgage-related payments to 31% of monthly income. But it gets there in a different way, by focusing on changes in the principal amount rather than the interest rate.

Under the FHA plan, mortgage servicers can reduce the amount of principal on which the borrower must make loan payments by as much as 30% to get monthly payments to affordable levels. The borrower makes the reduced payments for the life of the loan, but is responsible for paying off the full loan amount when the home is sold or the loan is refinanced. This approach is designed to fit guidelines set by Congress, FHA officials said…

…Under the new guidelines, FHA borrowers can receive a loan modification after they have missed one loan payment, rather than waiting until they are at least three payments late, as in the past. This is different from the Obama program, which allows borrowers who are at risk of default to get help, even if they are current on their loan. The FHA can’t offer similar help to at-risk borrowers, officials said, because it would run afoul of contracts with investors who buy GNMA securities, bonds made up of FHA and other government-backed loans.

Mortgage servicers will receive incentive fees of as much as $1,250 for each successful modification. FHA officials said they expect the approach to save the government money by reducing foreclosure-related losses on loans the government insures…

July 30, 2009. Tags: , , , , , , , . Economy, Finance, Foreclosures, Housing, Obama Administration, Unemployment Statistics. 2 comments.

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