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Update: Philly Fed PLUNGES! ZeroHedge:
Philly Fed Plunges To -7.7 on Expectations Of 7.0, Previous 5.1
More on that HUGE Philly Fed Miss from CalculatedRIsk
…Indexes for new orders and shipments also suggest a slowing this month; the new orders index fell slightly, to ‐7.1, while the shipments index turned negative, declining to ‐4.5. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative this month.
The percentage of firms reporting a decline in employment (23 percent) was higher than the percentage (20 percent) reporting an increase. More concerning was the significant drop in the average employee workweek index from 1.7 in July to ‐17.1 in August….
Most of we peeps outside the Beltway expected this (that’s us in the c ar screaming at John Candy aka Obama, Summers and Geithner) . Here it is. Delta going the wrong way. Rising weekly jobless claims continue, now hitting that 500,000 marker…and AGAIN note the revisions for the prior month-higher…
…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 500,000 in the week ended August 14, the highest since mid-November, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims slipping to 476,000 from the previously reported 484,000 the prior week, which was revised up to 488,000 in Thursday’s report…..
The American people are eagerly awaiting their chance to vote against this destructive, divisive agenda coming out of D.C. November cannot come soon enough. Hold On, voters are comin’, we will pull each other out of this morass the Obama Democrats have created. Please make sure EVERYONE you know is coming out to vote.
The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts reports that personal bankruptcy filings for the year ended June 30, 2010 surged to a five year high, hitting 1.57 million, a 20% increase from the prior year. Furthermore, in the period between April and June, there were 422,061 bankruptcy filings, a 9% increase from the 388,148 in the previous quarter, and up 11% from 381,073 a year earlier. As Reuters highlights, quarterly filings surpassed 400,000 for the first time since a record 667,431 bankruptcies were begun in the fourth quarter of 2005, when Congress overhauled federal bankruptcy laws and made it harder for people and businesses to file…
Nevada continues to be hardest hit in foreclosures and bankruptcies as well as unemployment, Harry Reid is killing his state on a Trifecta of issues with his ass backward economic ‘policies’,,,
If you are in Nevada, please take a look at Sharron Angle for Senate. I had initially backed Sue Lowden and donated to her campaign, but Sharron was the people’s choice and now any dillys I have for NV are going to Sharron who GETS IT. We need people who GET US, and GET AMERICA. Who GET free markets and fiscal responsibility. Please vote for Sharron Angle to turn NV around!
...Indicatively, Nevada had the highest rate of filings on a per capita basis in the last year, with 11.74 per 1,000 people)….
Obama is on my TV, again, this time BAMBOOZLING folks in Ohio and whining about how companies have plenty of money to hire and fully fund pensions. Good grief, the pension bailout is coming….Hold On America, we voters are comin’!!
July Jobs Data ~ -131k, June huge REVISION! -221K (-125K reported last month), rate holds @ 9.5% & the NY Fed begins foreclosures…
The recovery that wasn’t continues to stumble and fall.
…Nonfarm payrolls fell by 131,000 last month as the rise in private-sector employment was not enough to make up for the government jobs lost, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday. Only 71,000 private-sector jobs were added last month while 143,000 temporary workers on the 2010 census were let go.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting total nonfarm payrolls to drop by a smaller 60,000 in July.
The June data was revised down significantly. Payrolls fell 221,000 that month, more than the 125,000 drop previously reported, as only 31,000 jobs were added in the private sector….
We have been discussing how Uncle Sam will be the largest landlord in the US if they continue to use the GSEs to amass property. Now the NY Fed is FORECLOSING on folks, yes Uncle Sam is sending the Sheriff to get you out, example XXXXIIXX of unintended consequences..’Maiden Lane’
James Currell is struggling to prevent his Minnesota home from being foreclosed. But his lender isn’t a bank. It is the U.S. government.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is facing the prospect of foreclosing on a number of properties in the coming months, from homes to commercial buildings, a result of a souring mortgage portfolio it took over when it helped bail out Bear Stearns in 2008.
As it deals with delinquent borrowers, a team of New York Fed officials and outside advisers are trying to avoid having the U.S. government, along with local sheriff’s departments, seize commercial properties and homes as it copes with falling real-estate values. In the process, the New York Fed is getting a hard lesson in the challenges of mortgage lending….
…The New York Fed’s stance about how to pursue foreclosures is a sensitive balancing act. If it proceeds with numerous foreclosure proceedings in the coming months, particularly on residential mortgages, it could trigger concern among legislators looking to protect homeowners in their districts. The issue is particularly sensitive because taxpayers helped fund the Bear Stearns bailout….
Someone wake Geithner up and let him know, will ya? Gold down, Oil down, everything is down but Treasury prices…
…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 471,000 in the week ended May 15, the highest level since the week ended April 10, the Labor Department said Thursday.
The surprise jump took a toll on U.S. financial markets, already reeling on concerns Europe’s debt crisis could put a damper on the U.S. economic recovery….
The legislators across the world are scaring the crxp out of the markets:
...“I’m convinced the markets are really out of control. That is why we need really effective regulation, in the sense of creating a properly functioning market mechanism.”
Mr Schaeuble’s sense of urgency is compounded by his own state of health. Just 10 days ago, the 67-year-old survivor of a mentally disturbed would-be assassin was rushed to hospital with an allergic reaction to a new antibiotic as he arrived in Brussels for the emergency meeting of EU finance ministers called to agree on the 750 billion euro rescue package….
Housing Update: 1 in 7 home loans now in default or foreclosure (14.69%), 4.3 million units in shadow inventory and purchase applications plunged 27%, lowest level in 13 yrs, but don’t worry! Tim Geithner says Euro Debt crisis could never happen here…
And the hits just keep on comin’ in housing…
Calculated Risk is covering all the bases:
Details from the MBA conference call on the Q1 delinquency RECORD, highlights include:
FHA foreclosure starts up sharply. “Shadow inventory” of 4.3 million loans that need to worked through (90 day delinquent or in foreclosure) – or they will become REOs or distressed sales. Prime fixed rate is now the key problem! “Sand states” will not be as dominant as the problem moves to prime fixed rate.
On the horror show that is the purchase application drop (just like Cash for Clunkers, they cannibalized future sales):
…The Refinance Index increased 14.5 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 27.1 percent from one week earlier. This is the lowest Purchase Index observed in the survey since May of 1997. …
Market Movers: Meredith Whitney on the small business credit crunch and NY Fed’s Empire business conditions index PLUNGES…
The double dip is coming baby, believe it, and the Congress Critters attempts to ‘help us’ are making it worse…Read the entire piece by Meredith Whitney for the coming layoffs at the state level..
…Unless real focus is afforded to re-engaging small businesses in this country, we will have a tragic and dangerous unemployment level for an extended period of time. Small businesses fund themselves exactly the way consumers do, with credit cards and home equity lines. Over the past two years, more than $1.5 trillion in credit-card lines have been cut, and those cuts are increasing by the day. Due to dramatic declines in home values, home-equity lines as a funding option are effectively off the table. Proposed regulatory reform—specifically interest-rate caps and interchange fees—will merely exacerbate the cycle of credit contraction plaguing small businesses.
If banks are not allowed to effectively price for risk, they will not take the risk. Right now we need banks, and particularly community banks, more than ever to step in and provide liquidity to small businesses. Interest-rate caps and interchange fees will more likely drive consumer credit out of the market and many community banks out of business….
…It is important now to support any and all lending activities that would enable small businesses to begin hiring again. If the regulatory reform passes with rate-cap and interchange regulation amendments incorporated, small businesses will be hurt rather than helped. Politicians and regulators need to appreciate the core structural challenges facing unemployment in the U.S….
Empire State general business conditions index- CNBC:
…The New York Fed’s “Empire State” general business conditions index fell to 19.11 in May from 31.86 in April.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a May figure of 30.00….
...The new orders index fell to 14.30 from 29.49 in April….
Update:Marc Faber, Dr Doom, agrees with MiM; Christina Romer on stimulus bump in GDP; 3Q GDP in up 3.5%;Market Mover Thursday: 3Q GDP 8:30am EST..
UPDATE: Well! The original Dr Doom Marc Faber himself agrees with MiM’s analysis of the GDP and even uses the drunk analogy we used! Go read the whole thing!:
(…)Faber pointed out that there is currently a tug-of-war between the government and corporations and consumers. The government is pushing corporations and consumers to increase leverage, while they try to reduce borrowing in the wake of the financial crisis, he said.”If you have a drunk and he is drunk, you try to solve his problem by giving him more … this is role of the government. In my opinion this worked very badly,” he said…
…Bernanke only ever targets core inflation, Faber pointed out. But that strategy misses the point and it was the main cause of the current crisis, he said.
“How many people in this room can live without food and energy?” he asked a packed conference hall at the World Money Show. “Maybe at the Federal Reserve,” he added….
Reminder of the stimulus impact on this number and its return to zero in 2010 courtesy of Calculated Risk by way of Team TOTUS itself:
From Christina Romer, Chair, Council of Economic Advisers in Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee: From Recession to Recovery
In a report issued on September 10, the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) provided estimates of the impact of the ARRA on GDP and employment. …
These estimates suggest that the ARRA added two to three percentage points to real GDP growth in the second quarter and three to four percentage points to growth in the third quarter. This implies that much of the moderation of the decline in GDP growth in the second quarter and the anticipated rise in the third quarter is directly attributable to the ARRA.
Fiscal stimulus has its greatest impact on growth around the quarters when it is increasing most strongly. When spending and tax cuts reach their maximum and level off, the contribution to growth returns to roughly zero. This does not mean that stimulus is no longer having an effect. Rather, it means that the effect is to keep GDP above the level it would be at in the absence of stimulus, not to raise growth further. Most analysts predict that the fiscal stimulus will have its greatest impact on growth in the second and third quarters of 2009. By mid-2010, fiscal stimulus will likely be contributing little to growth.
The impact on GDP will be smaller going forward, and according to Dr. Romer, the impact will be around zero by mid next year, and will be a drag later in 2010 (as stimulus is reduced).
Update: El Rushbo on shenanigans with the stimulus job numbers:
Courtesy of therightscoop
Update: Diane Swonk on CNBC notes 1.7% of this GDP came from Clunkers. Rick Santelli agrees with MiM, it is a number driven by inventory builds and clunkers, it is less than 2% in reality and it is unsustainable without govt spending…GDP is important in part because it traditionally means you know JOBS. this is NOT a job creating GDP recovery number, this is a head fake, 4Q will have the homebuyer tax credit bump too, 1Q 10 2Q 10 are the real ones to watch and ONLY if the govt STOPS the Keynesian spending which IS NOT WORKING, THERE ARE STILL NO JOBS!
Update: Data in: 3Q GDP up 3.5% (clunkers, home credits, inventory builds,) MiM is still predicting a double dip, we are right on schedule…UE claims higher than expected…I predict a slew of speeches from Team TOTUS patting themselves on the back for what is IMO a fake number driven by government intervention with ridiculous spending programs like clunkers and homebuyer credits. When they are producing jobs and actual sustained durable good orders and retail sales THEN I will call it a recovery.
But we will be forced to listen to TOTUS patting himself on the back for a while first, ugh. And when it collapses AGAIN (I predict the double dip in 1Q or 2Q 2010 depending when the WH runs out of spending programs as the bond vigilantes force rates higher and the Fed either wakes up and tightens or lets hyperinflation kill the consumer) will TOTUS then re-blame GWB?
-FOX is reporting taxpayers spent 24,000 per frakkin clunker, unreal (Edmunds.com). FOX notes the Govt waits one hour after GDP release to talk about it so enjoy your TV while you can, lol.
The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in a year as consumer spending and investment in new home-building rebounded, data showed on Thursday, unofficially ending the worst recession in 70 years..
..Initial claims for state unemployment insurance declined, though the number was higher than expected, to a seasonally adjusted 530,000 in the week ended Oct. 24, the Labor Department said. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims to fall to 521,000 last week from 531,000.
The Commerce Department, in its first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, said the economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2007, after contracting 0.7 percent in the April-June period.
The growth pace in GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, was above market expectations for a 3.3 percent rate. The economy last grew in the second quarter of 2008…