Updates: Bernie Sanders I-VT seeks to put hold on Bens renomination; Black Swan says he will shun public life if Ben reconfirmed; Mark Zandi agrees double dip for housing ahead; Flashback: Bernanke in Denial 2005-2007
Update 2: Breaking on CNBC via Politico Bernie Sanders I-VT trying to put hold on Bens renomination hearing tomorrow. But they seem to have the 60 votes they need. Also today Taleb, of the Black Swan said if Ben is reconfirmed he will leave public life, seriously:
Nassim Taleb, the author of “The Black Swan”, said he would retreat from public life if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gains a second term at the helm of the central bank.”What I am seeing and hearing on the news — the reappointment of Bernanke — is too hard for me to bear,” Taleb wrote on his blog on The Huffington Post.
“I am not blaming Bernanke (he doesn’t even know he doesn’t understand how things work or that the tools he uses are not empirical); it is the Senators appointing him who are totally irresponsible — as if we promoted every doctor who committed malpractice,” he wrote.Taleb wrote he will not take part in interviews in the press and will not go to the World Economic Forum in Davos in January.
“I need to withdraw as immediately as possible into the Platonic tranquility of my library, work on my next book, find solace in science and philosophy, and mull the next step,” he wrote, adding that “I will only (briefly) emerge from my hiatus when the publishers force me to do so upon the publication of the paperback edition of The Black Swan.”…
Update: Boy it is exhausting having these fancy pants academics and/or advisers to MAC and Obama come along and agree with MiM months after we take a position, like being Cassandra, it sucketh big time. Now I just heard Marty Feldstein agreeing on Kudlow too, lol. To be fair Feldstein came out on this in October...sure now that it’s COOL to say there is a double dip ALL the kids wanna do it!
Soon Orszag and Krugman will be the cheese, and we all know the cheese stands alone.
Mark Zandi of Moodys (who will be at the big job summit this week, and who is at every Nancy Pelosi jobs bill panel as well), the man who advised MAC and later the Congress on the stimulus, is now forecasting a second leg down in housing, a big one, the one we and others have been yammering on about for months.
Maybe now that one of the chosen few who get listened to (despite often being quite wrong) and whose ideas are often quite unsuccessful (see WSJ on Orszag and Stiglitz’ EPIC FAIL on the risk posed by FAN FRED that somehow gets them promoted and invited to all the summits and now they help design all our economic policy and even our healthcare system!!) is on board with the fact that housing is in imminent danger of collapsing under the continuing deterioration of employment and the failure of the mo mods. Well maybe now they will do the damned HOLC and get it done.
FDR did it, in out boom,. Buy the home loans from the banks,w e already own them in FAN FRED anyway, write down 20% everyone underwater, boom, done. Let homeowners pay it off via their taxes to the government. Give a payroll tax holiday. Stop the uber spending in areas that don’t help the underlying economy. The entire 78 billion directed to housing is still sitting there waiting to be paid out on permanent mods that aren’t happening.
The meltdown of the U.S. housing market is not over yet, and home prices will soon start trekking downward again as a flood of foreclosures looms, a well-known economist said Wednesday.
Home prices, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, will trough in the third quarter of 2010 after declining 38 percent, Zandi said. The index peaked in the second quarter of 2006 and hit a trough in the first quarter of 2009, a drop of about 32 percent. Home prices in many regions have been rising.That is because foreclosure sales fell over the summer and fall as mortgage servicers have tried to put stressed homeowners into the Home Affordable Modification Program and other modification plans, he said. “This lull in foreclosures sales has resulted in the price gains in the past few months,” he said.
“Foreclosure sales will increase, and home prices will resume their decline by early 2010 as mortgage servicers figure out who will not qualify for a modification,” he said.
Zandi said 7.5 million foreclosure sales will have taken place between 2006 and 2011. The majority of these sales, however, have not emerged yet, with 4.8 million foreclosure sales expected between 2009 and 2011….
Will the real ‘party of the people’ please stand up?
This is where the Emperor would reveal to Luke that it was his plan to have him give in to the dark side…Can I laugh maniacally now as a 22 yr Dem, and reveal I am so so happy that Michael Steele and the GOP are protecting Medicare from cuts? 🙂
The GOP with a heart!
Ooh oooh like the Schooner Tuna commercial from Mr Mom!!! Where Teri Garr convinces the Tuna Exec to temporarily cut prices during the recession! Michael Steele and the GOP will temporarily stop tightening Medicare until after the recession? I’ll buy that for a dollar!
Can you imagine being a Dem Critter and praising Obama’s planned 600 Billion in Medicare/Medicaid cuts? I mean it is the height of hypocrisy on its face. They have been blowin smoke. If they believed all the crxp they sold we Dems for 22 yrs they should NOT be trying to implement Orszag cuts. Why the hell were we wailing about GW cutting Medicare? Why the hell did they have me calling the Hill about that if they felt like it was a good idea?
That has been my problem with the entire Obama neo-prog reasoning all the way down the line. Jason Fuhrman his economic dude loves him some Walmart which the Dem leadership told us was Teh Evil (TM). Then we had Austan Goolsbee telling Canada ixnay on the AftaNay renegotiation while Obama ran around the 57 states saying NAFTA killed gazillions! of American jobs and it was somehow Hillary’s fault. And their intellectual elitism and snobbery is NOT the blue collar Democratic party of my youth…
I couldn’t give a rat’s axx how sharp the crease in my POTUS pants leg is, David Brooks, you and your Kathleen Parker ilk are attracted to Team Obama precisely because they are like you, snobs. Arrogant and convinced of their righteousness and convinced of the ignorance of America at large. I will take GW’s brush clearing and Big Dawg’s peccadilloes any day over the Smartest Effetes in the Room…
And of course the piece de resistance is Orszag and Zeke Emanuel’s cost curves which are not Democratic plans IMO. They are something I am uncomfortable with, thus my recent move to the right…
And as always when I do something, I really do it 🙂
Bottom line is the GOP is fighting to save Medicare from DEMS who are trying to cut it and that tells me I am on the right track with my current support of the GOP. The party may change but the motivation I am looking for is who is looking out for the people and the nation. We are the Worrrrrldddd….oops my lib youth rearing its ugly head, LOL!
BWAAAAHAAAA!!!!! and Huh? but mostly BWAAAAHAAA!!We are through the looking glass, everyone needs to rethink where they have been standing IMO and go with the peeps best supporting American ideals, which at present is the GOP IMO…
Keep rockin me baby.
Update 3: CBO numbers out- forecasts higher unemployment than WH; OMB numbers out: CBO to report mid-session Budget review tomorrow…
Update 3: CBO numbers out. Getta load of this – the 10 yr deficit numbers are at first blush LOWER than the OMB forecast! Like 2 trillion lower! BWAAAAHAAAAA!! OMG Pete Orszag must be mad enough to spit, lol. Here the WH finaly steps up and picks up the original CBO forecast for 9t deficit and now CBO has rolled it back to 7t, heh. CBO also says for this to be sustainable we need lower spending and higher taxes, shockah!
The U.S. government will run a budget deficit of $1.6 trillion this year and $1.4 trillion in the 2010 and the unemployment rate next year will be higher than the White House forecasts, the Congressional Budget Office said.The deficit estimates for this year and next released by the nonpartisan agency are in line with those projected by the Obama administration earlier today. The CBO sees higher unemployment next year, averaging 10.2 percent in 2010. The White House forecast 9.8 percent unemployment…
Update 2: OMB numbers out UGLY. COYOTE UGLY. Orszag says TOTUS will present a plan to get the deficit in hand to Congress in February, uh oh taxes? He won’t speculate he says. Full data from Bloomberg here. Will post the CBO numbers as soon as they hit the wires…
…U.S. unemployment will surge to 10 percent this year and the budget deficit will widen to $1.5 trillion next year, reflecting a “deeper recession” than previously expected, White House budget chief Peter Orszag said. The Office of Management and Budget also forecasts that the U.S. economy will shrink 2.8 percent this year, worse than the 1.2 percent contraction the OMB projected in May. For next year, the budget office said the gross domestic product will grow 2.0 percent, less than the 3.2 percent expected in May. Over the next decade, the budget picture is darker, with the 10-year deficit reaching $9.05 trillion, up from $7.1 trillion forecast in May, the budget office said Aug. 19.
Gee, Pete Orszag didn’t get many numbers right did he?
…As a result, he said the budget blueprint Obama submits to Congress in February will “include proposals to put the nation back on a fiscally sustainable path; I’m not going to comment” on any specifics, he said.
Update: Stephen Moore (WSJ editorial board and frequent Kudlow guest) was on Greta tonight with the incredible news that we are now borrowing 5 billion A DAY!
Courtesy of mghoft
Dueling mid term Fiscal Year 2010 budget forecasts manyana. OMB (WH arm under Pete ‘Throw Momma from the Train’ Orszag) first at 9:30am EST, then CBO (Congressional Budget Watchdog) 30 minutes later to REALLY see wth is going on with all the spending…
The White House and a financial scrutiny arm of Congress will release Tuesday separate government budget estimates and updated economic forecasts highlighting the deficit problem plaguing the Obama administration.The White House Office of Management and Budget will release at 9:30 am (1330 GMT) Tuesday the mid-term review of the federal government budget for fiscal year 2010, which starts October 1, the OMB said in a statement Monday.
The Congressional Budget Office, a statutory watchdog which plays a critical support role to lawmakers by providing cost estimates, said it would give an update to its budget and economic outlook about half an hour after the White House releases its report…
Which means we should get a NEW version of this graph and it should be MUCH worse, even the WH arm is coming up to CBO’s OLD numbers and will reportedly show an additional 2 trillion in the 10 year deficit tomorrow, CBO is probably even higher now of course….China should be wiggin out when they see the data, recall Timmeh assuring China we would LOWER our deficit, AS IF! Remember the promises to cut the deficit in half that TOTUS made to Congress in February? HA!
We're gonna need a bigger graph.....
Update: Enzi, Grassley say no deal from GOP Cmte members before recess; Progressive Caucus revolts against Dem leadership on deal Waxman cut with Blue Dogs; Reid blames the media for the August deadline, and Nancy ratchets up class warfare again…
Update 4: the ‘blame the media’ is (un)Official Policy says I. Gibby used it today at the presser and tried to make it a joke. Reid AND Gibby make it clear the media is the fall guy for the latest failure in TOTUS Town…
Update 3: No agreement on health care from GOP Cmte Members per Grassley, Enzi. In other news the Dems are really losin it, Harry Reid is BLAMING THE MEDIA now !! Yes! He says the MEDIA created the August deadline. Guess he missed TOTUS and Gibby laying out August every other hour…
Reid said reporters created a fictitious deadline of a successful vote by the August recess, and downplayed the fact that the chamber won’t meet that mark.
“That is a deadline that you created,” Reid told a group of about 75 reporters. “It’s not like we don’t have a product. Significant progress has been made … The mere fact that this wasn’t done by last Friday or by five o’clock doesn’t mean we’re not going to get a quality product.”
And MiM has speculated here often that the reason TOTUS wanted it done BEFORE August is b/c the WH has been holding back the updated economic projections, (usually released mid July) showing the projected deficit. Obviously he wanted the healthcare deficit adding budget busting plan pushed through BEFORE anyone got a good look at what the deficit will be BEFORE they add on this mondo spending…yep.
Pelosi is raving against the EEEEEvil Insurance Companies now, looking to gin up that good ole’ standby, Class Warfare. It worked so well with Wall St and the EEEEEvil bankers and AIG (at least until Dodd got hoisted by his own petard having approved those bonuses himself, frakker). AP at HA has the details on Nancy’s ravings….
And in other fun for Nancy and Harry, the Progressive Caucus within the Dem majority is now in open revolt against the leadership for the deal Waxman cut with the Blue Dogs...the CBC has been throwing down the race card left and right, noting that the Energy Cmte Blue Dogs are all white men, and claiming the Blue Dogs are betraying the 20-40% of their constituents who are black. Seriously. Well, Nancy and Harry let the race card fly left and right against Hill in our primaries, so like I say live by the race card, die by the race card..karma baby..
…At one point, Carolyn Kilpatrick (D-Mich.), a former Congressional Black Caucus chairwoman, expressed outrage that conservatives would insist on significant cuts and a weakening of the public option, arguing that many of the Blue Dogs were letting down their black constituents, who make up 25 percent to 40 percent of their voters, in some instances….
…The intraparty dispute had racial overtones. One African-American Democrat, Representative Hank Johnson of Georgia, pointed out that the seven Blue Dog Democrats holding up the health care bill in the Energy and Commerce Committee were “a nondiverse group” of white men….
Nancy tried to push back on this conflict today:
…As to claims that Democratic leadership sold out progressive, African-Americans and Hispanic reps by negotiating a side deal, she responded: “Might I remind you that the progressives are represented on committees of jurisdiction in a very strong manner. Might I remind you that the progressives are chairmen of those committees — progressives have been well represented.”…
I hope everyone tries to get out and attend the AUGUST 22ND RECESS RALLY with the Tea Party Patriots!!!
Update 2: MM has linkys for Recess Rally August 22nd...
2. Tuesday: Call the House Energy and Commerce Committee members. Tell them not to pass the government run health care bill out of committee. Our sources tell us that all the Republicans will be voting against the legislation already so you may choose to focus on the Democrats. Record your answers and the number of calls you made.
3. Wednesday: Call the Blue Dog Democrats. Record your answers and the number of calls you made.
4. Thursday: Call the Senate Finance Committee tell them our economy cannot afford another massive government spending bill. (This link may not be active now abut it will be active before Thursday.) Record your answers and the number of calls you made.
5. Friday: Call your Senators and your Representative; tell them as a constituent you are asking them to vote NO on government take over of Health Care. Record your answers and the number of calls you made.
7. Friday: Call the Blue Dog Democrats AGAIN. Record your answers and the number of calls you made.
Update 3: El Rushbo on the changing tone of the health care sales pitch…
After the break:
Update: CBO scores Blue Dog Medicare cap – bill STILL ADDS BILLIONS TO DEFICIT..Floor vote next week -Blue Dogs rolled over already?..Health Care NOT waiting for August recess….
Well alrighty then! The sneaky attempts to give TOTUS (and his panel) control over Medicare spending (taking it away from Congress and thus from people who can be swayed by the public) and GUT benefits to Seniors STILL will not stop this bill from adding BILLIONS to the deficit according to CBO (the head of which was apparently NOT rolled by TOTUS’ oneness last week). Give that man a medal!
So they wanna Throw (Grand)Momma from the Train and it STILL will not avoid adding BILLIONS to the deficit, (that deficit, and the reality of the public’s reaction to it, of which the WH is rightfully fearful, is, in the projections they are holding back, likely MUCH MUCH higher than what they told us pre-spendulus)..KILL THIS BILL….
ZOMG- AP outs TOTUS ‘misstatements’ on the Health Care Bill…
AP responds to TOTUS News Conference with actual facts and intelligent cogent analysis….maybe it’s the eclipse..hurry read it before it comes down!!!
- By Calvin Woodward and Jim Kuhnhenn, Associated Press Writers
- WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama’s assertion Wednesday that government will stay out of health care decisions in an overhauled system is hard to square with the proposals coming out of Congress and with his own rhetoric.
Even now, nearly half the costs of health care in the U.S. are paid for by government at all levels. Federal authority would only grow under any proposal in play.
A look at some of Obama’s claims in his prime-time news conference:
OBAMA: “We already have rough agreement” on some aspects of what a health care overhaul should involve, and one is: “It will keep government out of health care decisions, giving you the option to keep your insurance if you’re happy with it.”
THE FACTS: In House legislation, a commission appointed by the government would determine what is and isn’t covered by insurance plans offered in a new purchasing pool, including a plan sponsored by the government. The bill also holds out the possibility that, over time, those standards could be imposed on all private insurance plans, not just the ones in the pool.
Indeed, Obama went on to lay out other principles of reform that plainly show the government making key decisions in health care. He said insurance companies would be barred from dropping coverage when someone gets too sick, limits would be set on out-of-pocket expenses, and preventive care such as checkups and mammograms would be covered.
It’s true that people would not be forced to give up a private plan and go with a public one. The question is whether all of those private plans would still be in place if the government entered the marketplace in a bigger way.
He addressed some of the nuances under questioning. “Can I guarantee that there are going to be no changes in the health care delivery system?” he said. “No. The whole point of this is to try to encourage changes that work for the American people and make them healthier.”
He acknowledged then that the “government already is making some of these decisions.”
Stimulus Unemployment Benefits Update: TX, FL, AL, LA, Miss, SC, VA…
Updates on stimulus unemployment benefits…to get an idea how widely the amounts vary from state to state this line in an AP piece jumped out at me: The highest weekly unemployment compensation is $584 in New Jersey, $362 in Michigan and $240 in Arizona…(It’s a crap shoot, and God willing your cost of living will match up with your benefit amount)
The $25.00 a week unemployment boost is available to EVERYONE, Congress mandated it, but it is temporary and when funding runs out, it is gone. The only variant on that benefit is how quickly states get the funds out..
TX: (Chron.com)
Congress made sure some money is directly available for citizens without waiting for governmental decisions. Among other things:
• • Most Texans’ paychecks will be a little fatter starting this month as the Making Work Pay tax credit kicks in and employers reduce their payroll tax withholdings by about $13 a week.
• • Texas’ jobless are now receiving an extra $25 a week in their benefits as mandated by Congress, according to the Texas Workforce Commission.
• • Food stamp recipients soon will get about $38 a month more to spend on necessities, according to the Texas Health and Human Services Commission.
Update on the expansion of unemployment benefits which would require changes to state law:
FL: (Sun-Sentinel):
For Florida’s jobless residents, unemployment compensation is a lifesaver. But if the state doesn’t act soon, unemployed residents who exhaust their jobless benefits may be out of luck. Florida is eligible to receive $777 million in federal money that would provide 20 more weeks of jobless benefits, in addition to the 59-week maximum now allowed. Those who have exhausted their benefits but have not yet found a job would qualify, as well as those just recently laid off…
…”We’re waiting to see what the federal government is going to do,” said Sen. Rudy Garcia, R-Hialeah, whose commerce committee has proposed a general bill addressing unemployment compensation.
There are a handful of other bills, but none extends benefits for Florida’s unemployed who have exhausted benefits and still don’t have a new job….
…Unemployed workers who receive 26 weeks of regular benefits are entitled to 33 weeks of emergency benefits under Obama’s stimulus package, a cash infusion geared to jump-start the U.S. economy….The maximum weekly jobless check is $275 plus $25 extra as part of the stimulus….
FL-Orlando Sentinel advises the legislature NOT take the money, follow linky for the number on what it will cost the state to expand benefits:
….House GOP leaders are happy for Florida to accept nearly $2.2 billion from Washington to cover the temporary cost of boosting weekly jobless benefits by $25 and adding as many as 20 weeks to the normal 26 weeks workers can collect them.
But they’re justifiably balking at taking another $443 million — about two months worth of payments from Florida’s unemployment-compensation trust fund — in return for permanently changing the way the state calculates benefits and permanently expanding eligibility….
NY: A commenter asks about NYS, NY has a very high benefit level, go to their site HERE for more info…
ME: (Mainebiz):
The governor is pushing a bill that would change the way Maine triggers its extended unemployment benefits, a measure that could bring as much as $38 million in federal funds to pay for up to 13 weeks of additional benefits for jobless Mainers.
The bill requires the creation of a fund of about $500,000 to pay for unemployment benefits of public and tribal employees, people who are prohibited from receiving benefit extensions via the federal economic recovery act. Creating that fund triggers federal stimulus money that would be directed to private sector employees who lost their jobs, according to Capital News Service.
VA: (Fredericksburg.com):
–Tomorrow,(4/8) the General Assembly will vote whether to let Virginia accept an additional $125 million for unemployment insurance benefits from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
Moderate in the Middle 